Time To Get Rich

Time To Get Rich

The Festival is the one time in the year where accumulators can realistically pay out a big sum from top class racing. If, like me, you only focus on the top end racing, there are rarely enough opportunities to back perms of horses at big prices at weekends to win a life changing sum of money.

With most firms NRNB, and with many of the prices likely to contract over the next couple of days, this is probably the best time to be doing an accumulator for horses running over the entire Festival period. Given the enhanced morning prices, if the horses you want to combine all run on the same day, then the morning of that day is probably the best time.

If you are going to pick, say, five horses for a Festival accumulator, then as well as the five fold, it's worth thinking about what other combinations it's worth doing. The way I look at that is to consider the payout. If you're a favourite backer and want to combine say Irving (5/2), Champagne Fever (3/1), Quevega (8/11), Annie Power (15/8) and Bobs Worth (15/8) - that five fold pays about 200/1. The four folds pay between around 50/1 and 115/1. The trebles pay between around 14/1 and 40/1.

Its worth doing the fivefold and possibly the 5 fourfolds - giving 6 bets in total. If you do the 10 trebles as well then if you have 3 winners, you have had 15 losing bets so could still be making a loss, (if it’s the 3 shortest price horse who win.) Singles are about making a profit, sometimes modest – the day to day meat and drink of successful punting. Accumulators are the fun – there’s no point including trebles in the scenario above as you roughly break even if you get 3 winners. Save your money on the trebles and just do the fivefolds, and maybe the fourfolds - that can return a decent sum.

By contrast, if you picked five 9/1 shots, the fivefold pays about 100,000/1. The fourfolds each pay 10,000/1, the trebles 1,000/1 and the doubles 100/1. In that case it may be worth doing the Canadian that combines all those bets. However, even then its arguable it's not worth doing the doubles – for the same reasons. If you've had 26 bets in the Canadian and you get two winners, that's paying effectively about 3/1 – which doesn’t seem worthwhile.

I'd prefer to ditch the doubles and accept I'll only get a payout if I get 3 winners from the 5 bets. I’d get 1000/1 on the treble and with only 16 bets I'm effectively getting over 60/1 if I get 3 winners. Reducing the number of bets makes the accumulator more affordable and means I can get enough down so that if they all win, it really is a life changing sum of money.

When working out how much to have on, it's crucial to check the bookies pay out rules, which vary considerably. The maximum payouts are generally between £250,000 and £1,000,000 for the total payout on all the bets in the accumulator – some layers don’t have a maximum, although some of those will impose one indirectly by limiting how much you can stake.

Clearly there's no point having a fiver on the 100,000/1 fivefold if the maximum payout is £250,000. Where you're taking prices, (rather than an unknown SP,) bookies really ought not to take more stake money from you than would lead to the maximum payout, but the fact is that they do - so it's necessary to work it out yourself.

I’m obviously looking for good value bets to comprise my accumulator and I need a layer that is at or near top price with them all. However, the real art to deriving value is to find inter-dependent events as I explained here.

The going is always the most likely element. It's currently looking as if there will be a virtually dry week in the run up to the Festival, with mild temperatures and light breezes. Assuming no unpublicised watering occurs that must mean a sound surface given the drainage. Whatever the ground may be officially termed, it's likely to be good spring ground on top. However, given that the previous two months or so had been so wet, the water table will be very high. As it has been so mild, there will be a much lusher covering of grass than usual.

The last time that happened was in 2000 and that led to a string of very fast times, (although there was some debate about whether the correct distances were being run, especially on the old course on the first two days.) Soft ground horses were still winning and very few horses were getting jarred up - because the high water table and lush coverage of grass meant that there was a lot of give in the ground even though it was dry on top, (the opposite to years when there is a lot of watering when it's wet on top and dry underneath.)

It's quite possible that we’ll get something similar this year and one consequence of that would be that you need a really fast horse at the trip. The rationale behind that is that horses are able to run so fast on the ground, (because it's dry on top and soft underneath), the stayers will be at a disadvantage.

Guesstimating the ground is always difficult and it wouldn't surprise me if I've got it wrong - but if I can find a string of horses I fancy who will all be favoured by such conditions, I'm effectively getting enhanced prices on the accumulator as that same event is factored into each of their individual prices.

With that in mind I'm keen on the following for an accumulator who are all fast horses at the trip:
Irving (Supreme) 5/2
Cockney Sparrow (Mares) 8/1
Rathvinden (Neptune) 8/1
Arctic Fire (County) 12/1
Captain Chris (Gold Cup) 16/1

The fivefold pays over 62,000/1 and the four folds pays between 3,700/1 and 18,000/1. If all five win that's just over 100,000/1. In practice you won’t be able to get all the top prices with one bookmaker and so depending on which bookmaker you’re with, you’ll get slightly lower odds than I’ve set out. If you’re with a bookie that has a maximum payout of £500,000, then having £5 for each of the six bets should take you nicely close to the maximum payout.

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Cheltenham Countdown

Welcome to our exclusive betting blog focusing on the 2014 Cheltenham Festival.

For the third year running, we welcomed National Hunt expert Matt Tombs to blog all things Cheltenham through the winter. The highlight was Jezki's Champion Hurdle win, which was a vindication of a long-term plot and went some way to ensuring another Festival in profit. Click through to view the archive of 2012 and 2013.

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2014 Results:

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Western Boy - Supreme Novices - 1pt 20/1 - U/P

Zamdy Man - Supreme Novices - 1pt 33/1 - N/R

Ted Veale - Arkle - 1pt e/w 25/1 NRNB - U/P

Felix Yonger - Arkle - 1pt 16/1 - N/R

Jezki - Champion Hurdle - 1pt 12/1 - WON

Cockney Sparrow - Mares Hurdle - 1pt 10/1 - U/P

Foxrock - National Hunt Chase - 1pt 9/2 - U/P

Gullinbursti - National Hunt Chase - 1pt 33/1 NRNB - N/R

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Rathvinden - Neptune Novices - 1pt e/w 16/1 - 3rd

Corrin Wood - RSA Chase - 1pt 14/1 - U/P

Ifandbutwhynot - Coral Cup - 1pt 28/1 - U/P

Arvika Ligeonniere - Champion Chase - 1pt 16/1 - U/P

Balthazar King - Cross Country - 1pt 33/1 - WON

Modus - Champion Bumper - 1pt 10/1 - U/P

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Mozoltov - JLT Novices Chase - 1pt 25/1 - U/P

Champagne Fever - JLT Novices Chase - 1pt 7/1 - N/R

Benefficient - Ryanair Chase - 1pt 9/2 - U/P

Baily Green - Ryanair Chase - 1pt e/w 20/1 NRNB - N/R

Salubrious - World Hurdle - 1pt e/w 25/1 - U/P

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Captain Cutter - Albert Bartlett - 1pt 10/1 - U/P

Arctic Fire - County Hurdle - 1pt 16/1 - 2nd

The Giant Bolster - Gold Cup - 1pt 16/1 - 3rd

Dynaste - Gold Cup - 1pt 25/1 NRNB - N/R

Certain Flight - Foxhunter Chase - 1pt 20/1 NRNB - U/P

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Gigginstown - Top Owner - 1pt 7/1 - WON

Good Ground - Official Going - 1pt 10/1 - LOST

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Advised Bets:

Sizing Gold - Aon Novice Handicap Chase - 1pt 7/1 - U/P

On The Fringe - Champion Hunters Chase - 1pt 7/4 - WON

At Fishers Cross - World Series Hurdle - 1pt 5/1 - 3rd

Balder Succes - Ryanair Novice Chase - 1pt 11/4 - 3rd

Art Of Logistics - Three.ie Handicap Chase - 1pt 12/1 - 2nd

Lyreen Legend - Punchestown Gold Cup - 1pt 6/1 - U/P

Shanahan's Turn - Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle - 1pt e/w 33/1 - U/P

Mozoltov - Boylesports.com Champion Chase - 1pt 9/1 - U/P

Western Boy - Champion Novice Hurdle - 1pt e/w 10/1 - U/P

Mullaghanoe River - Irish National - 1pt 18/1 - U/P

Mozoltov - Powers Gold Cup - 1pt 11/2 - U/P

Quito De La Roque - Grand National - 1pt 40/1 - U/P

Salubrious - Liverpool Hurdle - 1pt 16/1 - U/P

Ted Veale - Maghull Chase - 1pt 16/1 - U/P

Saint Are - Aintree Handicap Chase - 1pt 10/1 - U/P

Ballynagour - Melling Chase - 1pt 7/1 - 3rd

King Of The Picts - Top Novices Hurdle - 1pt 33/1 - 3rd

Themanfrom Minella - Sefton Novices Hurdle - 1pt 50/1 - U/P

Giorgio Quercus - Topham Chase - 1pt 25/1 - U/P

Dynaste - Betfred Bowl - 1pt 15/8 - 2nd

Turn Over Sivola - Red Rum Chase - 1pt 8/1 - 2nd

Uxizandre - Manifesto Novices Chase - 1pt 9/2 - WON

Mossey Joe - Aintree Fox Hunters - 1pt 13/8 - 3rd

Baby Shine - Reynoldstown Chase - 1pt 7/1 - U/P

Grumeti - Kingwell Hurdle - 1pt 5/1 - U/P

Bog Warrior - Red Mills Chase - 1pt 9/4 - U/P

Lord Windermere - Irish Hennessy - 1pt 12/1 - U/P

Vautour - Deloitte Novice - 1pt 2/1 - WON

Tammys Hill - Hunters Chase - 1pt e/w 5/1 - WON

Vendor - Betfair Hurdle - 1pt 12/1 - U/P

Boston Bob - Cleeve Hurdle - 1pt 5/1 - U/P

The Giant Bolster - Argento Chase - 1pt 7/1 - WON

Unioniste - Sky Bet Chase - 1pt 9/2 - 3rd

Hidden Cyclone - Clarence House Chase - 1pt 7/2 - 2nd

Captain Chris - WH Chase - 1pt 2/1 - WON

The Liquidator - Tolworth Hurdle - 1pt 5/2 - U/P

Lord Windermere - Lexus Chase - 1pt 12/1 - U/P

Hey Big Spender - Welsh National - 1pt 25/1 - U/P

Shantou Magic - Challow Hurdle - 1pt 6/1 - U/P

Morning Assembly - Topaz Novice Chase - 1pt 9/4 - 2nd

Cue Card - King George - 1pt 7/2 - 2nd

My Tent Or Yours - Christmas Hurdle - 1pt 5/4 - WON

Defy Logic - Racing Post Novice Chase - 1pt 6/1 - WON

Salubrious - Long Walk Hurdle - 1pt 9/1 - 2nd

Totalize - The Ladbroke - 1pt 9/1 - U/P

Ma Filleule - December Gold Cup - 1pt 20/1 - U/P

Prince De Beauchene - Hennessy Gold Cup - 1pt 16/1 - U/P

Grumeti - Fighting Fifth - 1pt e/w 10/1 - 3rd @ 9/1

Sizing Rio - Drinmore - 1pt 5/2 - U/P @ 3/1

Jezki - Hatton's Grace - 1pt Evens - WON

Roi Du Mee - Betfair Chase - 1pt e/w 20/1 - U/P

Ballynagour - Paddy Power Gold Cup - 1pt 8/1 - U/P

Gift Of Dgab - Paddy Power Gold Cup - 1pt 25/1 - U/P

Cash And Go - Greatwood Hurdle - 1pt 13/2 - U/P

Cotton Mill - Elite Hurdle - 1pt 6/1 - U/P

Cue Card - Haldon Gold Cup - 2pts 11/8 - U/P

Benefficient - Charlie Hall Chase - 1pt 9/1 - U/P

Sizing Europe - JNwine Champion Chase - 1pt 3/1 - 2nd