How have referees influenced betting markets this season?

The referees used by the Premier League this season all have some very different stats in the wake of new rules brought in by the FA.

How have referees influenced betting markets this season?

With the season now 11 games old we thought it the perfect time to see how the Premier League referees have reacted to the new rules and how they could affect betting markets.

It's fairly common knowledge that referees interpret the rules differently, with some more lenient and other more strict when officiating. That has been complicated this season, with the introduction of new rules brought in by the FA at the start of the season. The highlights of those were becoming more strict on holding in the box in the form of the awarding of penalties, and clamping down on multiple players surrounding the referee to question decisions.

Below is a handy table that shows the stats of each Premier League referee so far this season. The criteria we have used are yellow/red cards per match, fouls per match and penalties per match.

Referee Matches Yellow cards Red cards Fouls Yellow cards per match Red cards per match Fouls per match Penalties Penalties per match
John Moss 8 39 2 176 4.88 0.25 22.00 0 0.00
Kevin Friend 6 32 0 155 5.33 0.00 25.83 1 0.17
Robert Madley 8 42 0 193 5.25 0.00 24.13 4 0.50
Mike Dean 9 38 2 219 4.22 0.22 24.33 6 0.67
Roger East 4 14 2 90 3.50 0.50 22.50 1 0.25
Mark Clattenburg 7 29 1 148 4.14 0.14 21.14 3 0.43
Graham Scott 2 8 0 51 4.00 0.00 25.50 1 0.50
Neil Swarbrick 6 24 0 136 4.00 0.00 22.67 1 0.17
Andre Marriner 8 29 1 162 3.63 0.13 20.25 3 0.38
Martin Atkinson 9 32 1 204 3.56 0.11 22.67 1 0.11
Lee Mason 5 18 0 111 3.60 0.00 22.20 2 0.40
Anthony Taylor 10 35 0 263 3.50 0.00 26.30 3 0.30
Michael Oliver 10 35 0 235 3.50 0.00 23.50 2 0.20
Craig Pawson 7 22 1 139 3.14 0.14 19.86 0 0.00
Paul Tierney 2 5 0 47 2.50 0.00 23.50 0 0.00
Mike Jones 6 15 0 151 2.50 0.00 25.17 0 0.00
Stuart Attwell 3 6 0 45 2.00 0.00 15.00 0 0.00

Red cards

Though he has refereed a relatively low number of matches so far with 4, Roger East has already given 2 red cards and tops the red card per match stats with 0.50 per match. Of the referees that have officiated 5 matches or more, John Moss and Mike Dean are the most keen to get their red cards out, at 0.25 and 0.22 per game respectively.

Yellow cards

Interestingly, the two referees that give out the most yellow cards per game, in Kevin Friend (5.33) and Robert Madley (5.25), both are yet to give anyone a red card this season. That could suggest they are happy to give yellow cards for marginal offences but are reluctant to reduce a team to ten men unless they absolutely have to.

Fouls per yellow card

In terms of fouls per yellow card, Anthony Taylor is an interesting one. He has one of the highest fouls per match ratios at 26.30. He gives out 3.50 yellow cards per match though, meaning that he hands out a yellow card every 7.5 fouls, which is relatively low. That could mean his interpretation of a yellow card offense is very different to other referees.

At the other end of the scale is Andre Marriner. He is at the lower end of the fouls given per match ratios with 20.25. He gets his yellow card out 3.63 times per match, meaning he cautions players every 5.6 fouls. That could suggest he is happy to let the game flow but is more likely to give a yellow card when he does blow his whistle for a foul.

Penalties

Finally we come onto penalties. This stat has a clear outlier in Mike Dean. He has given 6 penalties in his 9 matches officiated this season, meaning 0.67 per match. There are many that say Mike Dean likes the limelight and makes rash decisions when it comes to the penalty spot. This stat alone appears to confirm that theory.

Other referees that are more likely to give penalties are Robert Madley (0.50), Graham Scott (0.50), Mark Clattenburg (0.43), Lee Mason (0.40) and Andre Marriner (0.38).

John Moss and Craig Pawson have refereed 8 and 7 matches this season but both are yet to award a penalty. That would suggest they are less likely to be fooled by diving and have not paid as close attention to the new rules about holding in the box than other referees.