£702 to 1pt profit on all Saturday tips!
Archive Horse Racing Tips - May 2012
nap 16.45: LIGHTNING SPIRIT
nb 17.15: SAABOOG
14.00:BELLE VOIR is related to plenty of winners on the continent whereby Gay Kelleway's newcomer could have too much toe close home for Richard Hannon's BOLEYN.
14.30:BENNELONG is emerging as the win and place call the more I look into this contest, whilst DUBAI GLORY also makes more appeal from a value for money perspective compared to shorter priced runners in the race.
15.05:BENNELONG is emerging as the win and place call the more I look into this contest, whilst DUBAI GLORY also makes more appeal from a value for money perspective compared to shorter priced runners in the race.
15.35:CHIGNON has attracted plenty of positive money on the exchanges this morning and Tom Queally's mount can score in a race which will not take a great deal of winning. DALMO and RENEGOTIATE are others to consider.
16.10:Frankie Dettori is rapidly becoming the forgotten man of flat racing and it would be nice to witness the former champion showing his skills abaord IBTAHAJ en route to a facile success. GUNNER WILL should emerge as 'forecast fodder' in the contest.
16.45:LIGHTNING SPIRIT is the only horse for money at the time of writing and the local raider has little to beat in all honesty. Course and distance winner MONASHEE ROCK is the nominated danger, whilst a small saver on PRANA might be worth consideration from an each way perspective. Jeremy Gask has his runners in good form and the four-year-old boasts place prospects given her family includes eight time winner Street Power who won an Ascot event for Jeremy a few years back.
17.15:James Tate has saddled four winners thus far and with Kieren Fallon having ridden three of the successful raiders, the duo look set score with SAABOOG in the penultimate race on the Brighton card. WHINGING WILLIE should be there or thereabouts off today's mark, whilst James Given has enjoyed a decent start to this campaign whereby CHOCCYWOCCYDOODAH merits respect.
17.45:AVONMORE STAR and CHEYLESMORE could start at appealing prices given the declaration of the recent Goodwood winner Beat The Bell who has failed to put back-to-back victories together for the thick end of four years.
nap 19.45: BACKTRADE
nb 18.15: GOLDEN DELICIOUS
17.45:YANKEE STORM should have the measure of EREKA and BOLD RING in an eleven runner event which was quite easily whittled down to these three declarations.
18.15:GOLDEN DELICIOUS could be the apple of my eye around 16.30 hours this evening if Daryll Holland's mount is as good as I have heard in this grade. ESCAPE TO GLORY and MINGUN GUN are the potential 'spoilers' in the line up.
18.45:"A sharp type ready to run in May" was Richard Hannon's comment when pressed about RED ADAIR, whilst Mick Channon's Misu Bond newcomer WARRANT OFFICER is likely to know what is asked of him at the first time of asking. Misu Bond was beaten 'three parts' on his debut in a warm contest at York before scoring next time out. WARRANT OFFICER looks sure to go well whilst a similar comment applies to MAXENTIUS, though Peter Chapple-Hyam's February foal will require a longer trip sooner rather than later.
19.15:MARIA MONTEZ is the each way call in a race which will not prove difficult to win. More logical winners via the form book include ESPRIT DANSEUR and ONENITEINHEAVEN, though form lines do not amount to a great deal in this grade.
19.45:BACKTRADE will not represent any real value for money but that said, a winner is a winner this side of 'Epsom weekend' and with seemingly only MISS NOBLE and INDIGO IRIS to beat, Dave Probert's mount should oblige.
20.15:Richard Hannon's expensive Aussie Rules colt RULE BOOK appears to have SAFARJAL to beat in the penultimate race on the Folkestone card.
20.45:Mark Johnston (BOUNTY SEEKER) and Mick Channon (NASEEM ALYASMEEN) boast recent combined stats of 17/160, compared to aggregate figures of 3/58 via the other three represented trainers. Their representatives will do for me against the other trio on this occasion.
nap 14.45: DARK DON
nb 16.45: ISINGY RED
14.15:There is some money building up for TRAVEL at the time of writing though essentially, this opening event looks booked for SHARAARAH. Plenty of leading stables are involved however whereby my cash will remain safely under lock and key.
14.45:DARK DON, GREY SEAL and PICTURE DEALER appear to be the trio for money this morning, though the latter named pair must overcome disappointing stall positions in order to score on this occasion.
15.15:High on numbers but low on plausible winners, HENRY ALLINGHAM, POOLE HARBOUR and THARAWAL all well enough drawn to frank their obvious chances via the form book.
15.45:TANTAMOUNT is the 'dark horse' in the contest and with Roger Charlton's team in fine form, the Observatory colt might take the beating. That said, I remember reporting that Andrew Balding also had his runners at the top of their form at this time of year twelve months ago and of course, Andrew has repeated the act in no uncertain terms of late. Andrew saddles NATASHA ROSTOVER with an each way chance, whilst SAREEAH completes my trio against the field.
16.15:This is a more open event with layers potentially happy to accommodate players of Lastkingofscotland. ALDERMOOR is poorly drawn unfortunately, though Ryan Clark's mount still makes some appeal around the 14/1 mark at the time of writing. Other each way types for the melting pot include ROSSETTI and ESPRIT DE MIDAS.
16.45:ISINGY RED, DVINSKY and PERFECT CHI represent half decent value for money against the more logical winner of the sixth race on the card, namely Lady Mango.
17.15:The 6/4 trade press quote about Athenian looks well wide of the mark this morning whereby I prefer the likes of ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, FARAWAY and COPPER FALLS on this occasion.
17.45:The relatively short priced offered about Watanee creates reasonable odds for the trio of EMPERORS WALTZ, APRIL CIEL and TRUSTING to be considered over lunch.
nap 14.15: KEENELAND
nb 15.50: BADGER FOOT
14.15:Last year's inaugural 7/4 favourite finished third behind a 9/1 chance, securing a toteplacepot position in the process. KEENELAND is expected to have too much experience for the likes of INISHKA and SHISHA THREESIXTY.
14.45:The second and third favourites filled the frame in the first running twelve months ago with the market leader finishing out of the (short field) frame. Six of the ten represented trainers have saddled winners of late whereby this race might not be as cut and dried as it first seemed, where SWIFT ARROW, ENDEAVOUR and BEIDH TINE ANSEO appeared to have the edge on paper.
15.20:Last year's (five-year-old) 11/8 favourite departed the scene too quickly for punters, with two other vintage representatives subsequently fighting out the finish. WITNESS IN COURT is arguably the pick of the three five-year-olds here, whilst five of Keith Reveley's last nine runners have finished 'in the three', statistics which include two winners. Keith saddles CROWNING JEWEL on this occasion, whilst I could also give a sqeak to L'EMINENCE GRISE.
15.50:Favourite backers fought back against the old enemy when a 4/1 market leader obliged twelve months ago. That successful favourite was BADGER FOOT who takes his chance again, potentially carrying four pounds less than he did twelve months ago. ROCKABILLY is a consistent type when negotiating obstacles safely, whilst MORE EQUITY completes my trio against the field.
16.25:A 10/1 chance split the leading market leaders last year when the 100/30 second favourite scored. Dianne Sayer saddled last year's runner up and the trainer has given herself two chances of going one better here via TALK OF SAAFEND and STAGS LEAP. Both horses are out of the handicap proper, though with two her last ten runners having scored, I suggest that at least one of Dianne's runners will figure prominently. OUTRAGEOUS REQUEST is the potential 'spoiler' in the party.
17.00:Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals of this Hunter Chase event during which time, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 17/2. My trio before the weekend was reached was ITZACLICHE, ABRAGANTE and SIERRA VICTOR and the trio should run well for your collective monies.
17.30:Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals to date, the last three market leaders having been beaten. I was asked to offer a price about Lucinda Russell training forty winners in last year's NH season and I thought 4/1 was a fair price for layers/players to consider. Lucinda managed a total of fifty seven gold medallists which was a magnificent effort and both of her runners are respected in the finale, namely RHYMERS STONE and MUMGOS DEBUT. That said, more logical winners include BRADY and MASON DAVID BROWN.
nap 16.25: SEA MOON
nb 15.20: GRUMETI
14.15:Richard Hannon's unbeaten Azamour colt MISDEMEANOUR has secured both of her victories to date at Kempton though I see no reason why the filly cannot transfer impressive form to turf. OPINION not only has a victory this season on his side but he is the only horse in the line up to have scored over the trip. Jeremy Noseda and William Buick teamed up to winning effect at Sandown the other evening and GRANDEUR should go close in the opening event.
14.45:Three favourites have scored via nine renewals during the last decade. Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests and in JET AWAY, RETRIEVE and OPERA GAL, the vintage is potentially well represented this time around.
15.20:Four-year-olds have won the last three (of four) renewals, vintage representatives having secured a 1-2-3 on each occasion! Four-year-olds come into the contest as 5/4 chances before form is taken into consideration. GRUMETI, LATE TELEGRAPH and ITHOUGHTITWASOVER might serve best on this occasion, the trio being listed in order of preference. We still await the first successful favourite in the contest.
15.55:Richard Hannon has secured the last four contests, with the trainer responsible for 4/22 entries at the five day stage. Richard has opted for two runners this time around, saddling MISTER MARC and RONALDHINO with obvious claims. If the trend is to go belly up on this occasion, HOT DIGGITY might prove to be the culprit. The biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 via nine renewals during the last decade.
16.25:Two favourites have obliged via five renewals and SEA MOON will surely be sent off as the market leader, despite the fact that his wining form has been gained under good/good to soft/heavy conditions. Beaten less than three lengths on fast ground at the Breeders Cup meeting by St Nicholas Abbey, that form reads well enough to see off this opposition from my viewpoint. Connections of the St Leger bronze medallist might have most to fear from DANDINO
17.00:It's difficult to get away from the likes of AYE AYE DIGBY, MY KINGDOM and MASAI MOON at the time of writing, whilst course and distance winner SEAMUS SHINDIG is offered the reserve nomination. Just one of the three market leaders has finished in the frame thus far (no winners).
17.35:The last three winners have scored at 33/1-16/1-12/1, whilst just two winning favourites have been recorded via the last nine renewals. A 100/1 chance prevailed back in 2004 when representing none other than Richard Hannon who has saddled seventy six winners at Goodwood during the last five years. In terms of turf tracks, Richard has only saddled more winners (eighty) at Windsor than he has achieved at the west Sussex venue. Richard is represented by POLY POMONA and SPUTNIK SWEETHEART in the 'lucky last', with PORT CHARLOTTE and STIRRING BALLAD two newcomers to keep an eye on.
nap 16.20: AHTOUG
14.00:Sometimes it does not pay to read too much into jockey bookings but with Richard Hannon generally ruling the juvenile roost here at Goodwood, it's worth noting that Richard Hughes rides TOMMY'S SECRET for Jane Chapple-Hyam with Hannon not represented in the race. TOMMY'S SECRET ran on from an impossible position at Chester at the first time of asking but this track and different ground could bring about an entirely different effort. CON LECHE and SMILING SHARK are the potential 'spoilers' in the line up.
14.35:Plenty of people want to become involved in this 'dead eight' (bet to nothing) contest with BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET, HANNIBAL HAYES and CHRISTOPHER CHUA attracting plenty of win and place interest at the time of writing.
15.10:PISCEAN was matched at twelve on the exchanges 'early doors' but punters will be fortunate to obtain half of those odds if the latest positive queue is accurate. That said, plenty of horses are being backed including KONSTANTIN and RAFAAF. Less than twenty four hours after accepting an Epsom Derby ride from trainer Marcus Tregoning, Hayley Turner climbs aboard KONSTANTIN for the yard with Hayley understandably eager to repay the faith Marcus has shown in her undoubted ability.
15.45:MICHELANGELO and PERENNIAL are the two horses to home in on here I'll wager. John Gosden's 'King Edward VII' entry MICHELANGELO looks sure to take the beating as the Galileo colt attempts to win the race for the third time for John and his team in the last four years. PERENNIAL is a good deal better than we saw on the Heath a few weeks ago and as the only Epsom Derby entry in the field, 'top brass' would like to see the horse win this and go on to play a major role in the 'Blue Riband' next week. Three of the last seven renewals of what I still refer to as the 'Predominate' have been secured by market leaders during the which time, the biggest priced winner scored at 13/2.
16.20:AHTOUG was Mahommod Al Zarooni's only five day declaration for Friday at the three day meeting at a track where the trainer enjoys a 29% strike rate with his representatives. AHTOUG is one of only two four-year-old raiders in the line up, vintage representatives having secured three of the last five renewals. Northern raider PARISIAN PYRAMID is a course and distance winner to consider, whilst ONELADYOWNER is an each way option if you want to play the race that way. Favourites have secured four of the six contests thus far, as have horses carrying 9-3 or more.
16.55:The only serious money is for LADY ROSAMUNDE though beaten favourite FIGARO is worth another chance in my book on only his second attempt at the Derby distance. If ever Ryan Moore's mount is going to get the twelve furlongs at full speed, it is surely going to happen here at Goodwood and the four-year-old is taken to thwart the projected favourite this time around. WOOP WOOP barely knows how to run a bad race and the Oratorio filly could be in the money for connections again.
17.30:There is about as much interest in the finale as there should be for Joey Barton's Twitter page but something has to win and if you must have a bet, the likes FORGIVE, HIKMA and CANTAL might serve better than most.
nap 14.35: MR CHURCHILL
nb17.30: AMAZING WAY
14.00:Richard Hannon has won seven of the last twelve renewals of this juvenile event, stats which include the last four gold medallists! SKY LANTERN is the obvious call hailing from the Hannon camp, connections probably having most to fear from the Charlie Hills raider GLEN GINNIE. Ten of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners). The last eight winners have scored at odds ranging between 4/9 and 7/1.
14.35:The serious money is arriving for ATTENBOROUGH and MR CHURCHILL at the time of writing with BEAUFORT TWELVE nominated as the each way call in the contest. Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried 9-0 or less which tends to suggest that MR CHURCHILL should be given the vote from a win perspective! Six of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (two winners).
15.10:CITRUS STAR, BRONZE PRINCE and GLOBAL CITY are emerging as each way types to consider via exchange activity this morning. The trio arguably represent the value for money options in the contest.
15.45:Three of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed whilst eight market leaders finished in the frame during the study period. I've witnessed a price of 4/1 about GATHERING that makes some appeal, albeit the drop back in trip will suit ESTRELA whereby this might be a race to watch in terms of future investments, rather than one in which to become financially involved today.
16.20:Nine of the last eleven gold medallists having carried 9-1 or less, whilst just three of the twelve favourites have made the frame during the study period (one winner). Four of the last eight winners have scored at 25/1--22/1--20/1--16/1. The facts and figurers suggest that bets should be kept to a minimum with GOLAN WAY, RASHEED and TWICE BITTEN being considered by yours truly at the time of writing.
16.55:This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply which tends to favour layers rather than players. BLAZING FIELD, HIDDEN VALLEY and GILDED AGE might serve best on this occasion.
17.30:Mick Channon (AMAZING WIN) is the only trainer who can be described as have his runners at the top of their form just now whereby the four-year-old is the call. REGINALD CLAUDE and RIO ROYALE might run well at rewarding odds for those of you that need a decent priced winner before becoming involved in the evening meetings.
nap 16.40: ASHKALARA
nb 17.45: PASSATO
14.10:Richard Hannon complicates matters by saddling three horses in this event, though I have to stick with the choice of Richard Hughes who has opted for LUCKY SUIT, who has experience on his side. The Red Clubs raider will come on for her soft ground Windsor outing and with better going to encounter here, the February foal can score at the second time of asking. Stable companions CIO CIO SAN and BEEDEE can make this a contest to remember for 'Team Hannon'.
14.40:Three-year-olds invariably have the edge at this stage of the season when mixed vintage races are on the agenda and both SON OF MAY and PERCYTHEPINTO can go well in this ten runner contest. If the youngsters are to be denied on this occasion, POLAR AURORAS could prove to be the culprit.
15.10:Layers on the machines don't appear to want to accommodate YANZA whereby Laura Pike can ride another winner. PICURA and RIGID are another pair of each way types to consider.
15.40:Only three of the ten runners are plausible winners from my viewpoint, the trio being listed in of preference as UPPER GROSVENOR, CHRISTINGLE and AUTUMN FIRE.
16.10:Jim Boyle saddled his fourth three-year-old handicap winner of the season yesterday whereby PERIWINKLE WAY is the tentative call in a contest which will not take a great deal of winning. Horses creating an interest on the exchanges at the time of writing include FIRST REBELLION and MONTY FAY.
16.40:PHLUKE and CIRCLE OF ANGELS could pose a threat to ASHKALARA on the pick of their respective form lines, though Stuart Howe's five-year-old is fancied to make amends for Stuart's disqualified 'winner' at Newton Abbot the other day. Three of Stuart's six winners on the level during the last five years have been gained here at Chepstow.
17.10:As anticipated a few weeks ago, Michael Bell's three-year-old's are improving day by day following a poor season last year by Michael's high standards. Michael's Pontefract winner RUACANA is the latest inmate off the production line and the Cape Cross gelding can get the better of CHERRY STREET close home.
17.45:Hayley Turner has ridden four of her last sixteen mounts to winning effect and PASSATO looks nailed on to figure prominently in Chepstow's finale. IGUACO looks poised to mount the strongest challenge with respect also given to the likes of MAYAN FLIGHT and JOSIE'S DREAM.
nap 20.00: ZAIN PRINCESS
nb 18.30: FAIR PASSION
18.00:There is no threat to HANDSOME RANSOM emerging via the Internet this morning and I will tentatively offer the likes of JOE THE COAT and ELEGANT OPHELIA to following the favourite home, albeit at a respectful distance.
18.30:Relatively high on numbers but short on plausible winners, the trio of FAIR PASSION, OSIRIS WAY and WOODEN KING should serve better than most.
19.00:MARVELINO should be up to winning a race sometime this season though on this occasion, I prefer the likes of ACE PEARL and HASOPOP. Marco Botti (HASOPOP) boasts a 21% strike rate with his juveniles at Kempton via a 11/52 ratio.
19.30:Horses are sent over a distance of ground because they lack pace, pure and simple. This is the reason that on the few occasions when I do invest money in such contests, stakes are kept to a minimum. WALDSEE, DELAGOA BAY and BROUGHTONS BANDIT should provide the winner between them.
20.00:There is plenty of consistent money in the positive queue for ZAIN PRINCESS at the time of writing and Gerard Butler's beaten favourite is probably worth another chance in this grade/company. Others to consider in a typical Kempton handicap include ARCH VILLAIN and AWESOME PEARL.
20.30:DIPLOMATIC and LOYAL N TRSUTED are ridden by Luke Morris and Jim Crowley respectively, two jockeys who literally ride hundreds of winners at this venue. DVINSKY completes my trio in another difficult event on the Kempton card.
21.00:ADVERSE is another Michael Bell three-year-old to consider at the meeting, though more logical winners on this occasion are HURRIYA, SWEET GRACE and LUCIFERS SHADOW.
nap 20.50: BRIDGEHAMPTON
nb 18.20: RED LOVER
18.20:Ed Dunlop's horses are in good (each way) form at present and his Azamour gelding RED LOVER catches the eye from a win and place perspective, especially given his decent third placed effort in a Newbury maiden when beaten just a length as a two year-old. Ed's four-year-old failed to build on that potential last year via just two (all weather) assignments but Ryan Moore's mount appears to have been well placed here in a race which should not prove difficult to win. Four-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals for good measure, which also brings GLASS MOUNTAIN and ARTISAN into the equation.
18.50:BENANDONNER has so much in hand via official ratings here that course bookmakers will surely be betting on the winning distance. AUSSIE BLUE has a least won a race in 'recent' times compared to the other four contenders whereby the seven-year-old is selected as 'forecast fodder'.
19.20:It's worth noting that Brian Meehan has not saddled a runner in this event since landing the prize with an odds on chance four years ago. The odds relating to SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL should not be as cramped though that said, the Kodiac colt did precious little wrong when only finding one to good for him on soft ground at Newbury at the first time of asking. There is little (if any) confidence in Richard Hannon's raider CEELO at the time of writing, albeit commitments later this morning meant that this column was written 'early doors' when several of you might barely have 'hit the pillow'. SUTTON SID is the other horse to consider, though Brian Meehan should get off the juvenile mark here at the fourteenth time of asking this season.
19.50:The last three favourites have won this event following the third placed effort of the inaugural market leader. All eleven horses to have secured toteplacepot positions have carried a minimum burden of 8-12 whereby the bottom two horses in the handicap have been left out of my equation. The trio of the eight remaining declarations which make most appeal on this occasion are DIXIE'S DREAM, ALKADI and FABLED CITY.
20.20:Another race on the Leicester card in which punters have enjoyed their fair share of success with six of the seven winners returned at odds of 7/2 or less, statistics which include four victorious market leaders. Beaten favoruite LADYSHIP is Sir Michael's Stoute's only runner on Monday and it's rare for Ryan Moore not to be seen riding at Windsor though with a few decent chances on the card, Ryan's agent has done his job to good effect. That said, TICKLED PINK was the horse for money on the exchanges at the time of writing, whilst CATWALK (carries the second colours of the Cheveley Park Stud) was not 'walking' in the market which might have been expected with Ladyship having been delared to run.
20.50:I have (successfully) been making the point during the last few weeks that Michael Bell's handicappers have been leniently treated via the trainer's indifferent season in 2011 and BRIDGEHAMPTON is a case in point, despite being penalised for a Beverley success last week. TANTAMOUNT and ZA'LAN are expected to follow the selection home.
nap 15.20: THAT'LL DO
nb 16.20: DOMTALINE
14.20:Why is it that the shortest priced favourites are often the horses that let us down in doubles, trebles and accumulators? Two of the three market leaders have won this opening event but yes you've guessed it, a 1/3 chance finished out of the frame (without falling) two years ago! Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by declaring that DANCE TEMPO and ISLANDMAGEE might make the most of the seven pounds they receive from HIGH STORM.
14.50:The inaugural (David Pipe trained) favourite finished second (beaten two lengths) at 5/2 followed by the complete demise of last years 15/8 market leader. David was not represented last year and had one entry at the five day stage with Tom Scudamore already 'jocked up'. That said, young O'Farrell now rides five-year-old BEATTIE GREEN but I could do the steering and go close on the Pond House raider. MY VIKING BAY and COMMERCE are regarded as the main threats.
15.20:THAT'LL DO is in good form and the seven-year-old won on this card twelve months ago. Paul Nicholls has booked a seven pound claimer aboard the selection whereby the Beat All gelding looks nailed on to run a big race. OSTLAND, OLD WIGMORE and MARLEY ROCA are the pick of the other fifteen runners, hoping that four each way positions remain intact.
15.50:The only favourite not to win during the last four renewals of this event finished out of the frame. Course winner CUBISM drops into the 'superior' sector of the weights given the claimer in the plate whilst others down the handicap with definite win and place chances include TARTAN TIGER and MERCURY BAY according to the handicap trends.
15.50:The only favourite not to win during the last four renewals of this event finished out of the frame. Course winner CUBISM drops into the 'superior' sector of the weights given the claimer in the plate whilst others down the handicap with definite win and place chances include TARTAN TIGER and MERCURY BAY according to the handicap trends.
16.50:Paul Nicholls has saddled both four-year-old winners to date whereby I'm surprised that Paul's two options last week have not been declared. In their absence, connections of ETANIA, CHAMPAGNE N CAVIAR and KILMURVY might prove to be the beneficiaries. One of the two favourites has finished in the frame (last year's 5/6 market leader).
nap 19.45: LADYS FIRST
nb 20.20: MASTER OF DISGUISE (EACH WAY)
18.10:I have chosen Doncaster as Saturday's meeting as some of you might be looking for entertainment which does not include football! Upwards and onwards in positive mode by suggesting that POLURRIAN and KAYAAN can figure prominently in the opening event. All four winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less which also brings AL FURAT and EIJAZZ into the equation. Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner).
18.40:This appears to be a competitive fifth renewal of a two year old race in which Richard Fahey has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medal to date. Richard saddles his Elusive City newcomer MONKEY BAR FLIES and the February foal has to be included in my mix from an 'anorak' perspective, especially as Richard's previous winners in the race were returned at 40/1 and 7/1. ANNUNCIATION and potential outsider THERAPEUTIC are others to consider. The only favourite to finish in the money to date was last year's 30/100 winner.
19.15:Three-year-olds had won the first five renewals before a four-year-old well and truly upset last year's apple-cart by scoring at 16/1. The only two market leaders (of seven in total) to secure toteplacepot positions won their respective events. That said, the biggest priced winner when the three-year-old's ruled the roost was returned at just 9/2. Taking the facts and stats into account, my short list consists of ASIAN TRADER, SIR PEDRO and IFFRAAM.
19.45:LADYS FIRST won at the first time as a juvenile and her effort when beaten just two lengths in Doncaster's £300,000 extravaganza back in September remain firmly lodged in my memory bank. That said, DANK created a favourable impression at Kempton on her second start, whilst SAVANNA DAYS appears to have trained on to decent effect. Both favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner).
20.20:Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick whilst we still await the first successful market leaders following four renewals. All four winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less with MASTER OF DISGUISE being the only horse in the line up with ticks in both boxes. ABLE MASTER is the only other six-year-old in the line up, whilst others to consider include JACK LUEY, L'ASTRE DE CHOISIR abd ALIVE AND KICKING. Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
20.50:Four of the six winners of the finale have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 whilst two favourites have been successful to date. GO DUTCH, MASTER OF AGES and FAMOUS POET should all figure prominently in what appears to be a superior finale compared to the average Doncaster contest. Three of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
nap 15.10: CURL
nb 16.20: BURWAAZ
13.40:Favourites have secured four of the last seven renewals thought that said, two of the other gold medallists were returned at 40/1 and 16/1. This race is often split into divisions, four of the last nine of which have been won by horses saddled by Richard Hannon. Richard is represented by MYSTERIAL and taking Richard's slightly slow start to the juvenile season, the Invincible Spirit colt did not run too badly when beaten just over five lengths at the first time of asking when a beaten favourite at Newmarket twelve days ago. STAR BREAKER, SECRET SIGN and PAY FREEZE are two of quite a few potential dangers in the opening event.
14.10:I've seen an 8/1 quote about the recent heavy ground Sandown winner MORANT BAY which attracts the eye given that trainer Sir Henry Cecil has won the last two renewals of this Listed event in which he was represented. That said, FIRDAWS could be anything this season, whilst it's worth noting that five of the last seven contests have fallen the way of market leaders. STARSCOPE is the other short priced runner to take into consideration alongside Roger Varian's Mr Greeley filly.
14.40:We still await the first successful favourite following six renewals, with the winners ranging between 11/2 and 14/1 thus far. All six winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones whereby the bottom five (of sixteen) runners are eliminated from my enquiries. My short list consists of AMBALA, CHEDDAR GEORGE and MISK KHITAAM. A remote outsider that could be considered is HAWRIDGE SONG whose 25/1 quote at the time of writing makes some appeal from a win and place perspective.
15.10:Richard Hannon's Duke Of Marmalade newcomer CURL has plenty of fancy entries and I would not be at all surprised if the February foal goes close at the first time of asking. Richard has won the last three contests and the two winners in the line up could be there for the taken giving the four newcomers weight. JILLNEXTDOOR is fancied to give the selection a race inside the final furlong.
15.45:Richard Hannon's two runners in this race in 2010 ran well down the field, flanked by successful stable-mates either side of that renewal. Richard looks to be 'tiliting at windmills' with PILGRIMS REST here as the beaten favourite is pitted against decent looking types in DEIA SUNRISE, WATERCLOCK and COMMITMENT.
16.20:Four of the last eight renewals have been secured by market leaders, whilst two other 'short priced' scorers were returned at 9/2 and 100/30. BURWAAZ should head the betting this time around on behalf of Ed Dunlop's yard, connections of the Exceed And Excel colt possibly having most to fear from SWISS SPIRIT and INETROBIL.
16.55:Mark Usher has saddled three of his last thirteen runners to winning effect and LADY OF BURGANDY could run well at a big price in the finale according to the gospel of yours truly. Horses carrying weights of nine stones or less have secured eight of the nine available win and place positions whereby THUNDERING HOME and EASTERN MAGIC complete my speculative trio against the other nine contenders.
nap 14.10: SHESTHEMAN
nb 15.10: DAUNT
13.40:Richard Hannon's Choisir filly VARNISH ran second in a decent Newbury maiden event last year and can be fancied to go one better this time around, especially as the form of that race has been franked to winning effect. Richard has saddled five winners since Monday whereby the team is beginning to pick up on what has been a slowish start to the season. RED HALO and BERWIN are expected to offer most resistance close home.
14.10:SHESTHEMAN has received plenty of overnight support on the exchanges overnight which suggests that the 8/1 quote in the trade press will be well wide of the mark when the runners emerge from the stalls. DANUBE RIVER and THE GIVING TREE area feared most.
14.40:Richard Hannon saddles four of the nine runners which emphasises the point that the yard's juvenile have been a little slower to come to hand this year. MAGIC CHANNEL should prove to be the pick of the four inmates, with ASK THE GURU and BAIRAM the potential 'spoilers' in the line up as far as 'Team Hannon' is concerned.
15.10:DAUNT is another Hannon winner on the card waiting to happen with seemingly only BARBARELLA BLUE to beat.
15.45:There are not many plausible winners in the line up in a race which could have been set up by bookmakers. If you must have a bet, SOUND HEARTS, KEENE DANCER and DESPATCH might serve better than most.
16.20:Beaten favourite ROYAL REYAH is probably worth another chance in this contest though that said, my money will remain under lock and key as the projected favourite represents little value around the 2/1 mark. The declarations of MARINUS and WILTSHIRE LIFE will ensure that my 'powder remains dry' on this occasion.
16.55:This second division of the previous race in today's 'column' is much more competitive despite the fact that just nine runners are set to face the starter. ATLANTIS CROSSING, ASHPAN SAM and NEW DECADE should give collective investors a run for their money from a win and place perspective.
17.25:THE NAME IS FRANK looks sure to give investors a run for their money, though with DANCING WELCOME and ALL RIGHT NOW also having been declared for the finale, my cash will remain in her handbag!
nap 18.40: LUCKY BEGGAR
nb 20.40: SHADES OF GREY
17.40:Too many people seem to want to lay Tidal Wave which is surprising whereby I would sooner take chances with the likes of MISS BOOTYLISHES, BARATHEA DANCER and ASHKALARA in the opening event.
18.10:HARDY PLUME narrowly failed to land a touch for yours truly last week but with Denis Coakley's runners continuing to impress, John Fahy's mount is taken to make amends here. The potential 'spoilers' in the line up include VEXILLUM and OUR PHYLLI VERA, both horses having attracted plenty of support on the exchanges at the time of writing.
18.40:Baileys Jubilee is most certainly one of the best juveniles seen out thus far and though LUCKY BEGGAR was beaten a long way by that rival, the form of the race looks pretty solid whereby the runner up can go one better this time around. MARCHWOOD looks booked for the frame again, whilst DEVOUT might prove to be the pick of the newcomers despite requiring a longer trip in all probability, sooner rather than later.
19.10:The reason why Richard Hannon saddles so many juvenile winners is that the trainer is a past master at finding decent opportunities for his young horses and SIR PRANCEALOT is a typical example in this contest. In a race which is high on numbers but short on plausible winners, SIR PRANCEALOT should win this event with something to spare en route to better things. RUN IT TWICE and STRONG CONVICTION are the potential dangers.
19.40:JOLLY RANCH, MADAME KINTYRE, VALMINA and (possibly) RED AVALANCHE are nominated against the field in a tough handicap event in which I would rather be a layer than a player.
20.10:A tight eleven runner affair in which each and every runner remains set to face the starter which makes for a refreshing change following a serious bout of non runneritis. Remaining positive, I will nominate CHICARITO, CATS EYES and handicap debutant CATFLAP against the field.
20.40:Clive Cox and connections might have named SHADES OF GREY after 'er indoors though 'shades' have turned into 'mass' since the five-year-old was foaled. Either way, John Fahy's mount has run well here in the past and last year's Newbury winner should prevail here following a prep race last month. MAYDREAM and AEGEAN DESTINY are rated as the main dangers in the finale.
nap 14.40: SUN QUEST
nb 15.40: KAHSABELLE
14.10:David Pipe secured the inaugural contest twelve months ago and the Pond House representative this time around is the ex-French acquisition CABORA who has been offered a half decent opportunity this side of the channel at the first time of asking. MISS EXHIBITIONAIST and ADIYNARA are the potential 'spoilers' in the field.
14.40:SUN QUEST is worth noting as Steve Dixon has saddled three of his eleven runners at Wincanton to winning effect thus far, securing thirty eight points of profit into the bargain! The beaten favourite is Steve's only runner all week from what I can determine. ALLFORMARY and RESIDENCE AND SPA are consistent alternative options to consider.
15.10:Venetia Williams landed a 24/1 treble at Towcester last night via just four runners as the trainer continued a great run of recent form. Venetia saddles course winner PLEIN PUVOIR on this occasion, seemingly with INSIDE DEALER and AMROTH BAY to beat.
15.40:Venetia's other entry on the card is KAHSABELLE who I note is available at 12/1 as I write which has to offer some value to potential players in the contest. The seven-year-old has secured both victories to date on today's projected (good to soft) ground whereby Aidan Coleman's mount is the value for money call. LOST TWO STARS and AKADYR are others to consider.
16.10:FLAMING GEORGE is impossible to oppose, especially hailing form the local Paul Nicholls yard which reigns supreme at this venue.
16.40:ARMOURY HOUSE is another 'hot pot' that looks likely to oblige though that said, there is some opposition on the exchanges this morning via MISS MIDNIGHT who has been matched at 6/1 and less, with plenty of money in the positive queue at 5/1 at the time of writing.
17.10:SGT RECKLESS is the horse for money early doors though there is not a great deal of liquidity at the time. ROYAL NATIVE is standing its ground at the head of the market, whilst MYSOCKS completes my trio against the other eight contenders in the finale.
nap 16.15: JET ACCLAIM
nb 16.45: REMIX
13.45:EMMA JEAN will probably run well without winning, whilst OUTLAW TORN and DAZZLIN BLUEBELL are added to the mix in an opening race which should not prove difficult to win.
14.15:High on numbers but woefully short of class, this second division of the opening event might be dominated by the likes of LEAN ON PETE, INDIANA GUEST and LUCIFERS SHADOW.
14.45:Only two favourites have won this claiming event during the last decade whereby a mortgage investment on CAUGHT NAPPING is not advised, albeit Bill Turner should saddled his ninth juvenile winner of the season via his twenty third representative in the two-year-old sector.
15.15:Only one of the five favoruites has finished in the frame to date (winner of it's respective event), whilst four of the five gold medallists carried nine stones or more. The stats rule out the bottom three horses whereby ARGNAIL is expected to get the better of RED CAPE in the shadow of the post.
15.45:Five of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, albeit just one (13/8) favourite has obliged to date. Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 as far as vintage winners are concerned, whereby MECOX BAY is marginally preferred to SPARTAN KING and DELAGOA BAY.
16.15:JET ACCLAIM is related to Smart Striking who is a winner of two of her seven races and with a fancy entry to her name, JET ACCLAIM can get Marco Botti off to a great start via his first juvenile runner this season. SYLVIA PANKHURST and LUCY BEE are the main dangers from my viewpoint.
16.45:REMIX is attracting attention at fancy 'prices' on the exchanges at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading as James Given has saddled more winners at Wolverhampton than at any other venue in the land. SILVAS ROMANA is another (extreme) outsider to consider, given that trainer Mark Brisbourne has saddled two of his last five runners to winning effect. A more logical winner via the form book is course winner TRAVELLING who could complete a double on the card for Marco Botti.
17.15:Seven-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals and in TALK OF SAAFEND, the vintage could improve its ratio in the finale. COOL BARANCA and SI IS SHE can offer most resistance inside the final furlong.
nap 16.50: EASTER DAY
nb 16.20: SWEET WORLD (e/w)
14.20:PEAKS OF FIRE looks sure to give investors a decent run for their collective monies, albeit more likely winners of the contest are DE FAOITHESDREAM and KEEP KICKING.
14.50:Yet more rain would not worry connections of TORNADO IN MILAN whilst VRAI VERT is also a winner under soft conditions. Both horses will figure in my toteplacepot permutation, with RESTS GOSSE offered up as the third option.
15.20:We have already mentioned horses on the card who would prefer moisture to remain in the ground though conversely, OCA DE THAIX would ideally prefer the sun to shine this weekend. Fair play to Worcester because at the time of writing, the ground is projected to be no worse than "good to soft" which is a remarkable achievement given the amount of rain which has fallen in the west country of late. Either way, I expect the ten-year-old to figure prominently, possibly alongside LIGHT THE WORLD and BRUNSTON.
15.50:SAWPIT SAMBA is the 'dark horse' in the line up representing Venetia Williams who has saddled ten of her last twenty four runners to winning effect at the time of writing. More logical winners via the form book include BABYSITTER, CADOUDALAS and TERFEL'S TOSCAR.
16.20:The eight renewals contested during the last decade have failed to produce a successful market leader with three of the last four winners having been returned at odds of 33/1-14/1--11/1. The trio were all representing the eight-year-old vintage which makes for interesting reading, with just SWEET WORLD having been declared this time around. The main dangers might prove to be HIGHWAY CODE and TARKARI.
16.50:Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-3 via eight renewals during the last decade and I expect the trend of younger horses dominating the contests to continue via EASTER DAY, SPANISH ARCH and I'M FRAAM GOVAN.
nap 15.05: MORACHE MUSIC
nb 17.25: SUGAR HICCUP
14.00:Philip Hobbs has won two of the last four runnings of this opening event and the trainer has declared his recent Cheltenham winner PATEESE on this occasion. The positive nature of the five victories gained to date is that all the successes were recorded with the word 'soft' featuring in the going description. Negatively, Pateese has failed to record back to back victories to date. Alternative options include THE TRACEY SHUFFLE, ARCTIC COURT and FIND A KEY.
14.35:It's interest to note that Charlie Hills saddles his Acclamation colt RED DRAGON here, given that the Hills team love raiding Chester at all levels. This sixth furlong of this event will probably be muted as the reason why the April foal runs here, though the scenario is an interesting one with three days of racing on the Roodeye having been staged this week. Others for the mix include WINDHOEK and ANNUNCIATION, whilst beaten favourite BARRACUDA BOY did not do a great deal wrong at the first time of asking. We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals.
15.05:Two favourites have won via the last six contests, whilst all ten winners during the last decade were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. All four victories secured by MORACHE MUSIC have been gained on yielding/soft ground whereby Peter Makin's four-year-old is the first name on the team sheet. Joining the Sleeping Indian there is OUR JONATHAN who also acts on the ground.
15.40:Nicky Henderson comes into the race on a hat trick, whilst two favourites have won during the last decade. Five-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, though six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals. Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones. Putting all the stats and facts together produces a 'short list' of LIFESTYLE, PAINTBALL, TONY STAR and TONIC MELLYSSE. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to DREAMBROOK LADY.
16.15:Five renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite obliged, the last market leader having prevailed at odds of 2/7. Course and distance winners BEACON LODGE and FIREBEAM make more appeal that the other five runners of this occasion. Course winner GRAMERCY would come under consideration if yet another non runner rears its ugly head this week.
16.50:Clare Island Boy disappointed yours truly last time out and I will probably wait for Richard Hannon's three-year-old to win again before putting the Strategic Prince gelding back in my little black book. More to my liking this time around are TRAIL BLAZE, TIDAL WAY and ASSIZES.
17.25:Four-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals of the finale and the trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the other four contenders, namely SUGAR HICCUP, MICA MIKA and LUGGERS HALL. Thre three horses are listed in order of preference.
nap 19.45: GOURAY GIRL
nb 20.20: SWISS FRANC
17.25:PREMIER STEPS has a little experience to call on here having been beaten just three lengths at Newbury on soft ground three weeks ago, despite only finishing seventh of eleven on the day. EQUITANIA and SYMBALINE represent the powerful juvenile yards of Hannon and Channon respectively and it's impossible to rule the pair out of the 'short field' equation.
18.00:Like Premier Steps in the opening race, GRAPHIC GUEST and STEER BY THE STARS were not beaten far in their respetive debut events, so much so that the two newcomers might struggle to get the better of them, despite the debutants hailing from leading Kevin Ryan and Clive Cox yards.
18.35:James Eustace has won with two of his last four runners at the time of writing whereby TIGHT LIPPED could go well here from the bottom of the list of nine potential runners. The Dark Angel gelding has run well on a few occasions under soft conditions without winning and perhaps this is his turn to visit the enclosure reserved for the winner. NOW MY SON was given his chance in York's Acomb Stakes following a successful debut twelve months ago and I will be noting his effort with interest, whilst others to consider include GOODWOOD ATLANTIS and PRESBURG.
19.10:We have had some nice winners of late via the Michael Bell yard because as stated a few weeks ago, the stable suffered a disappointing year in 2011 (by their high standards) which has meant that many of their runners have decent handicap marks now. SOVEREIGN DEBT is the stable representative this time around, the three-year-old probably having PERFECT STEP and possibly MOON PEARL to beat on this occasion.
19.45:Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals yet there are no vintage representatives involved this time around! Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by suggesting that GOURAY GIRL can become the third five-year-old to win the race via six contests. Certainly not inconvenienced by soft ground, Henry Candy's raider is the nap on the card. KINGSDINE receives the alternative vote.
20.20:SWISS FRANC is difficult to win with but both of his victories have been gained under good to soft conditions and this might be the best time to catch David Elsworth's seven-year-old, namely at the first time of asking this season. CHILLI GREEN is the danger.
nap 20.25: HARDY PLUME
nb 18.25: ENTHRALL
17.20:All bets should be on the low side today given the state of the ground up and down the length and breadth of the country. That said, the nap and next best selections at the bottom of the column should be respected given the form of the Denis Coakley yard at the time of writing. Upwards and onwards with the first race by suggesting that MONSHAK and GREAT HEAVENS should dominate proceedings if the positive money in the exchange queues are anything to go by.
17.55:CUCKOO ROCK could emerge as the each way 'bet to nothing' wgaer is all eight runners face the starter. If lesser numbers enter the stalls, KING'S ROAD and KHUM JOHN would be respected from a win perspective.
18.25:KAI and ENTHRALL are the two horses for money this morning, though liquidity is at an all time low which is hardly surprising with so much rain still hovering over the British Isles. JOHNSON'S CAT completes my tentative trio against the other twelve contenders.
18.55:The same comments apply regarding EUROPEAN DREAM here from an each way perspective if all eight runners stand their ground. The going should prove no problem to the each way selection. JAWHAR and BATGIRL are others to consider.
19.25:INTERAKT is the tentative call in this 'short field' event, with CARAMELITA offered up as the alternative call in a race which will not require a great deal of winning.
19.55:Hopefully another eight runner contest on the card with NICHOLAS POCOCK, PINDAR and AVON SUPREME making most appeal at the time of writing.
20.25:This is the 'Holiday on the Norfolk Broads' Handicap though if this rain continues, we will all be travelling by canoe soon. We won't need to go to Norfolk to ride the canals! Upwards and onwards in positive mode by suggesting that HARDY PLUME, CURLY COME HOME and THECORNISHCOCKNEY should figure prominently. The last five runners saddled by Denis Coakley (HARDY PLUME) have secured three gold and two silver medals, with two of the gold medallists having been ridden by today's pilot Eddie Ahern.
nap 16.00: DEIREADH RE
nb 15.00: FAREWELLATMIDNIGHT
14.30:The last four market leaders have secured three gold and one silver medal, whilst the 9/4 second favourite scoring on the other occasion. Jim Best saddled the winner of this race back in 2008 and the same pilot takes the ride aboard the stable representative GOODWOOD STARLIGHT this time around, namely Tony McCoy. Connections will probably have most to fear from good to soft course and distance winner LILAC BELLE.
15.00:Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade, statistics which include four successful market leaders. Dual good to soft winner FAREWELLATMIDNIGHT is the first name on the team sheet, hoping that the worst of the forecast rain misses the Norfolk venue. Course winner SPRINGFIELD RAKI is another to consider alongside MAN OF PRINCIPLES.
15.30:The positive Paul Nicholls stats of 5/16 at Fakenham during the last five years are slightly misleading as the trainer stands at 0/5 with his hurdlers during the period. CAPTAIN KELLY is looking to break the recent duck, with connections possibly having most to fear from MASTER OF THE SEA and ALL THAT REMAINS on this occasion.
16.00:This is where Paul Nicholls comes into his own at Fakenham as five of Paul's eleven chasers have won in recent times and DEIREADH RE has three rivals to beat on behalf of the stable this time around. SAME DIFFERENCE scored by twenty four lengths under yielding conditions last time out whereby the Twiston-Davies representative is named as the main threat.
16.30:The local Turner yard has secured seven of the last ten renewals and the yard is represented by last year's winner ASSASSINO. Fellow course and distance winner ELEAZAR is the potential 'spoiler' in the mix.
17.00:The last five winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include two successful favourites. The three beaten favourites during the period all secured silver medals. Jim Best saddled two runners on the card with Tony McCoy book aboard both runners, with six-ear-old BOLLIN JUDITH representing the yard in the finale. PETIT FLEUR marginally receives the alternative nod over Accordingtoeileen.
nap 16.00: MOHEEB
nb 14.25: FLY FISHER
14.25:With four of his ten juvenile runners having won at the time of writing, Richard Fahey has his two-year-olds in good order and FLY FISHER has been well placed to improve the ratio on behalf of the yard. It would come as no surprise if INDIAN JADE, RELIGHT MY FIRE and SPACE ARTIST emerge as the pick of the newcomers.
14.55:An extremely competitive race given that just ten runners face the starter. All five winners or less have carried 9-4 or less, whilst just one favourite has obliged thus far. TOWBEE, FIRST FAST NOW and BLUE SHOES are three of seven 'qualifiers' via the weight trends this time around and this trio will be for me against the field.
15.25:AMAZING BLUE SKY, TRIBAL MYTH and SMART STEP might prove to offer better value for money than Ailsa Craig on this occasion. Five-year-olds have won three of the five renewals thus far whereby TRIBAL MYTH receives the marginal call over the other pair mentioned in despatches.
16.00:Lower weighted runners have a decent record on the card and this is another race in question. All five winners have carried 9-1 or less (three successful favourites) and MOHEEB, ICY BLUE and GRITSTONE will carry my toteplacepot cash on this occasion. Course and distance winner MOHEEB is the nomination from a win perspective.
16.30:Mark Johnston sits miles clear of the other trainers in the three-year-old handicap sector whereby Mark's three runners should be taken into consideration, namely PARTY LINE, LOST HIGHWAY and GABRIAL'S LAYLA. The three representatives are listed in order of preference.
17.00:All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12, stats which eliminate the bottom six horses if you take the stats seriously. KATHLEENSLUCKYLAD, LOLITA LEBRON and LADY ADVOCATE should all figure prominently in a tight handicap.
17.30:WATTS UP SON (11/14) is not too well drawn but this might help to boost his potential odds, especially with a seven pound claimer in the saddle. Those to consider drawn over the right side of the stalls include COTTAM DONNY (1) and JUST THE TONIC (5).
18.00:This is the second division of the 17.00 event and the 'qualifiers' on this occasion include DUBIOUS ESCAPE, JOHNNY CAVAGIN and BE CALM.
nap 14.55: TASSEL
nb 16.45: APOSTLE
13.50:Henry Candy's Zafeen gelding ZHIGGY'S STARDUST is an interesting declaration given that Henry comes into the contest on a hat trick having saddled 11/10 and 13/2 winners in the last two years. FORT BASTION is well exposed now but the three time silver medallist has to be in the mix, possibly alongside Andrew Balding's debutant OCEANA DREAMER.
14.20:Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals with vintage representatives coming to the gig as 7/4 chances, before taking the form book into account. ALBERT BRIDGE, ROYAL PECULIAR and O MA LAD should prove to be the pick of the quartet, the trio being listed in order of preference.
14.55:An extremely interersting renewal of this juvenile event, with Richard Hannon attempting to win the contest for the fifth time in the last eleven years with TASSEL. Richard's Kyllachy filly was well under yielding conditions at Newmarket, though this track should suit the speedy DREAMY CIARA who tries to land a hat trick in the race for David Evans. Throw JUDY IN DISGUISE into the equation from any number of other options and it's easy to see why I'm looking forward to this contest.
15.35:I'm not convinced that ten furlongs is the right trip for JACK WHO'S HE, though this is a horse I have always liked and I do not like deserting the top weight. REBEL SONG looks well treated, whilst the declarations of HANDSOME MAN and EXPENSE CLAIM add icing to the cake.
16.10:Market leaders have secured six of the last nine renewals, with favourites coming into the contest on a four-timer on this occasion. The exchanges will be a great help in this event thirty six hours on from the time of writing, though I will be brave by suggesting that RIGHT TO RULE, NEW YOUMZAIN and SYNCHRONICITY will give investors a decent run for their collective monies.
16.45:APOSTLE was a great juvenile yardstick for Michael Bell's yard last year and it will be fascinating to see how the Dark Angel gelding progresses this year. HAAF A SIXPENCE and course and distance winner SHAMROCKED adds interest to proceedings.
17.20:We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals, the winners ranging in odds between 13/2 and 16/1 thus far. I would be leaving before the final race if I were at Salisbury personally though if you must have a bet, SILVEE, RAPID WATER and THE NAME IF FRANK might serve better than most.
1000 Guineas thoughts at Newmarket: MAYBE is a worthy favourite though I fancy GRAY PEARL to run a decent race at rewarding odds. MAYBE is unbeaten after five starts and providing further rain does not stop the filly in her tracks, Aidan O'Brien's Gailieo filly should take the beating. Gray Pearl represents 'Team Hills' which is the only other stable (aside from Aiden O'Brien's yard) to have won both of the relevant Guineas events during the last decade. DIALA completes my trio against the field.
The anger of the Gods throughout April leaves us in the unusual situation that the opening Classics of the season will be
run on soft ground at Newmarket this weekend. In recent memory, the only 2000 Guineas to be run with soft in the going description
was in 1998, when it was won on good to soft by King Of Kings, an Aidan O'Brien-trained colt by a sire in Sadler's
Wells whose progeny usually excelled over further than a mile. Due to a career-ending injury in the Derby, we never found
out King Of Kings's ideal trip, but further Guineas victories for Entrepreneur and Refuse To Bend leaves us in no doubt
of Sadler's Wells's ability to sire milers.
The comparison between King Of Kings and Camelot is a dubious one, but when analysing the 7/4 favourite it's hard to get away from the fact that amongst all the top class horses sired by Sadler's Wells's son - the late Montjeu - precisely none have excelled over a mile once turning three. Camelot was Montjeu's fourth Racing Post Trophy winner after Motivator, Authorized and St Nicholas Abbey - 12f horses all and proof that winning over 1m on autumn ground at 2 is no stepping stone to a Guineas. On quick ground Camelot would be taken on with confidence, but with the emphasis now potentially more on stamina than speed it's hard to be as bullish. He was visually impressive at Doncaster but the form is ropey and he's easily passed over at the current price. The Derby will be another story.
Camelot's stablemate Power had a great 2yo campaign and should train on, but he's been described as a lazy type and the vibes suggest he'll go the route of Oratorio and Duke Of Marmalade in performing credibly at Newmarket but improving through the season. Camelot's presence adds credence to this.
Craven winner Trumpet Major heads Richard Hannon's quartet, and having proved he's trained on from an already high class level of 2yo form holds solid credentials. The worry for him is the ground, as he looked unhappy on the official good to soft last month and flounded in the Solario on soft at Sandown last year. The fact he was still able to win the Craven bodes extremely well for a return to fast going but lots of cut isn't what he wants. Of his others, Bronterre and Redact have the look of sprinters but Coupe De Ville might get in the money at a big price. If one puts his reappearance flop over 10f down to stamina, which is plausible, last year's Tattersalls 2yo Trophy victory over 7f on the Rowley Mile was achieved in spite of a stopping mid-race incident and there's reason to believe he will act on soft. A further point to mention regarding Hannon is that these four were all behind the injured Harbour Watch in the trainer's pecking order.
The French bring a three-pronged assault; Mikel Delzangles won this with Makfi in 2010 and asked about Hermival he stated that they only have their sires in common. Hermival was beaten soundly by French Fifteen and Abtaal in the Prix Djebel - the former reversing 2yo form and there looks little between them at this stage of their career, which anchors the enthusiasm for either. Abtaal is probably the best prospect of the three, but it will be likely over further than a mile and it might be they are only running here to avoid Dabirsim in the Poulains.
Top Offer was well-backed for this in the spring, and hasn't run purely because of the ground. Though he may prove best on quick going, there's nothing to say he won't act on soft and his inexperience has pushed him out to a not-unappealing price for one so clearly well regarded. Of the other British hopes, Fencing looks like he wants further and Caspar Netscher didn't convince when asked to stretch in the Greenham. Jeremy Noseda has supplemented Talwar, and the soft ground is right up his street based on the dominant Solario win at Sandown last year. He lost his way after that but has proved he's trained on, though plenty more is needed.
This Guineas has the look of a trappy race, but there is a gift horse looking us right in the face in the shape of Born To Sea. This is the final foal of probably the greatest broodmare in European racing history in Urban Sea - the Arc winner who has produced two of the best racehorses of a generation in Galileo and Sea The Stars. The latter is a three-parts brother to Born To Sea, with sires both by Green Desert. Born To Sea's sire Invincible Spirit was a blue-blooded sprinter, and more of a speed influence than Sea The Stars's sire Cape Cross, and as such Born To Sea won't be heading to Epsom from here - a mile is his trip.
It's easy to get caught up in bloodlines so we'll turn to trainer John Oxx, a man with few peers in the game and a 28% strike-rate in the UK since 1995. The careers of Sinndar, Azamour and Sea The Stars were an absolute masterclass in letting a colt shape their future and if Oxx declares himself satisfied that Born To Sea can do himself justice in this race there can be few doubters. The horse was precocious enough to be ready to run in July last year and it was only slight setbacks that kept him off until September, when he won a 6f Listed race on debut. Much was made of the defeat by Nephrite next time out, but he tore a muscle and was lame post-race, so we can forgive this. To watch the gangly, immature juvenile perform at this level was extremely encouraging and we know what happened to Sea The Stars with a winter on his back.
Oxx has declared himself unconcerned with the going and happy with his preparation: "Everything has gone very well with him and he's had a trouble-free run. He's enjoyed a good winter, hasn't missed any time at all since mid-December and he's as fit as we can have him for his first run." If this isn't an endorsement from the cautious trainer then nothing is, and in a renewal where the favourite is a 12f horse in-waiting and the rest are nothing to be afraid of, at 9/1 it's time to load up on the latest, and final, in the production line of Urban Sea's champions.
nap 15.30: VERY GOOD DAY
nb 17.15: JOYFUL SPIRIT (EACH WAY)
13.40:Richard Hannon trained a successful even money favourite two years ago, though the market leader has been flanked by horses scoring at 25/1 and 14/1 to date. Richard also saddled last year's 11/10 runner up and the stable is represented by the Invincible Spirit colt JIMMY ELDER on this occasion, though the name is slightly misleading as this was a late (April 30) foal which counts against the likely favourite. The alternative option is considered to be STRONG CONVICTION though that said, Mick Channon's Piccolo colt is only eleven days older than JIMMY ELDER.
14.15:Last year's inaugural (7/2) winner was trained by John Gosden who is represented by beaten favourite POLYGON this time around. Like last year's gold medallist, POLYGON is also a four-year-old though the ground might be against Nicky Mackay's mount as the beaten favourite scenario occurred when the Dynaformer filly was last seen on a racecourse when contesting a Group 3 event in Italy. VITA NOVA and course and distance winner TAMEEN have won under soft conditions and should figure prominently for their respective connections.
14.50:Four-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date whilst vintage representatives have claimed nine of the available sixteen toteplacepot positions to date. STEPS and course and distance winner SUGAR BEET are the two four-year-olds on parade this time around, with JUDGE 'N JURY added to the overnight mix. Five renewals have slipped by since the inaugural 9/2 favourite obliged, with the five subsequent winners having won at odds ranging between 7/2 and 12/1.
15.30:Five-year-olds have won the two contests thus far at odds of 20/1 and 16/1 whereby this year's two vintage representatives jump off the page, albeit via a 'brief trend'. SPICE FAIR and VERY GOOD DAY are the horses in question with respective connections possibly having most to fear from TAIKOO who is a dual winner on soft ground, with one of those victories having been secured at this venue.
16.05:Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals whilst vintage representatives have secured eleven of the last available fifteen toteplacepot positions. Vintage representatives are 2/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into account and RAASEKHA and WINTER'S NIGHT make most appeal this side of midnight. ESENTEPE cannot be ignored given the strength of her 'Nell Gwyn' victory. The last eight favourites have all finished in the frame, stats which include three winners via the last six renewals.
16.40:We still await the first successful favourite via three contests, with just one market leader having finished in the frame thus far. BALADY has plenty of experience to call on, whilst the 'Unex' horses are invariably decent types whereby UNEX ANNIGONI is fancied to go well for John Gosden at the first time of asking. POOLE HARBOUR remains a maiden after three starts but Richard Hannon's three-year-old will win sooner rather than later I'll wager.
17.15:John Dunlop has won two of the three renewals of the finale thus far, whilst market leaders have secured two gold and one bronze medal to date. John saddled an 18/1 outsider last year which finished out with the washing and the trainer will be hoping to extend his good record in the race with JOYFUL SPIRIT this time around. Others for the short list include RENEGOTIATE and WHIPCRACKAWAY.
2000 Guineas thoguhts at Newmarket: John Gosden was waxing lyrical about the favourite CAMELOT the other day and John's opinion in these classic events is worth consideration, especially when talking about a horse which potentially looks a class apart from his rivals. That said, the each way call in the race in TRUMPET MAJOR in my book who could emerge as a 'bet to nothing' at around the 8/1 mark. If you want an extreme outsider to consider, TALWAR fits the bill given that he beat Trumpet Major at level weights last year but is now five times the price (therebouts) of Richard Hannon's Craven Stakes winner.
nap 20.00: PLEIN POUVOIR
nb 19.00: DRUMSHAMBO
18.00:All three renewals have been secured by favourites of one description or another thus far and horses towards the top of the market to consider are MY VIKING BAY, A HIT IS A HIT and GHAABESH.
18.30:Seven-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals whereby this year's lone vintage representative UNWANTED GIFT is the first name on my team sheet. Favourites have won six races during the same period however, which suggests that RAWAAJ and MAIZY MISSILE will also figure prominently.
19.00:DRUMSHAMBO is the subject of plenty of support at the time of writing and Aidan Coleman's mount looks sure to go close in this grade/company. JADHERE is another each way type to consider, albeit a more logical winner in the line up is STANLEY BRIDGE.
19.30:High on numbers but short on potential winners, this moderate event should be dominated by the likes of HOWARD'S LEGACY, AMRON LAD and TELL ME Y.
20.00:Venetia Williams has her team in terrific form as seven gold and five silver medallists via her last twenty one runners confirms. Venetia has plenty of chances on the card, perhaps the best of them being PLEIN POUVOIR in this event. IT'S LIKE THAT is expected to offer most resistance close home.
20.30:Favourites come to the party on a five-timer in this Hunter Chase finale, market leaders also having won two of the previous four contests for good measure. WHAT A LAUGH, BERMUDA BOY and CURRENT EXCHANGE stand out from the crowd on this occasion
nap 14.30: JUBILEE GAMES
nb 17.00: TOM SAWYER (EACH WAY)
14.00:A typical amateur rider event which calls a for maximum investment of minimum stakes! That said, some people are piling the money on and the positive cash in the exchange queues at the time of writing involved TALK OF SAAFEND, DECHIPER and TOSHI.
14.30:I do not take short prices about juveniles aside from the odd top yard here and there where proven winning form has been established. Too many market leaders are beaten (juvenile favourite stats this season: 7/37--18.9%) whereby JUBILEE GAMES is taken to outpoint SYLVIA PANKHURST on this occasion.
15.00:One of the more competitive events on the card might be dominated by the likes of LE CHAT D'OR, SAVE THE BEES and CYMFLINDERS in the shadow of the jamstick.
15.30:SILK DRUM ran well for a long way at Aintree under the other code of the sport before also being pulled up at Ayr last time out in another warm event. Dianne Sayer's dual purpose raider can make the frame here at rewarding odds, whilst others of interest include CADORE and LAW TO HIMSELF.
16.00:Paul Hanagan returns up north following yesterday's Kempton sortie and the champion jockey should be among the winners over the border today. HI THERE represents one of Paul's better chances on the card though that said, there is positive money on the exchanges for HALF A BILLION and LA SALIDA at the time of writing.
16.30:It was no surprise to read that Graham Lee was going to ride on the flat this year as the pilot can do 8-9 on a good day. Graham rides MONEL here with a definite squeak with connections possibly having most to fear from SOCIAL RHYTHM and RA JUNIOR this time around.
17.00:Julie Camacho has saddled four of her recent nine runners at Musselburgh to winning effect whereby TOM SAWYER is given an each way chance. SILVANUS and MECCA'S TEAM are other each way options to consider.
17.35:DUNSEVERICK could prove to be something of an 'each way bet to nothing' in the finale given his likely starting price of around the 5/1 mark. WHATS FOR PUDDING and GARSTANG are also expected to figure prominently.
nap 16.40: ESHAAB
nb 15.30: FAZZA
14.20:With two runners from just six juvenile runners this season, Richard Fahey will be hoping that his Kyllachy colt POLSKI MAX can step up on his third placed debut effort, though conditions will be keep any bets I have at Pontefract today on the low side. INCHY COO also shaped with promise first time up whilst HILLBILLY BOY is a winner waiting to happen, though whether today will be his day in open to debate.
14.55:COMMITMENT and KASHGAR are the only horses for money 'early doors' though that said, there is not a great deal of liquidity to report in this event. Luca Cumani saddled a winner at Haydock the other day whereby COMMITMENT is the marginal call.
15.30:Five-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests with lone vintage representative FAZZA expected to run well on this occasion. Five-year-old's are on a hat trick this time around, with connections of the Sulamani gelding possibly having most to fear from EDMAAJ and course and distance winner WISEMAN'S DIAMOND.
16.05:Gerard Butler's last three runners have secured two gold and one silver medal whereby CALA SANTANYI is the first name on the team sheet, especially as four-year-old's have won three of the five renewals of this race to date. SWINGLAND is the obvious potential 'spoiler' in the line up, with course and distance winner ANTIGUA SUNRISE also expected to figure prominently.
16.40:ZAIN PRINCESS would be the each way call if pushed to name a win and place option against the more likely winner ESHAAB. Ed Dunlop's Dynaformer colt heads the weights but providing the February foal does not get bogged down by conditions, Tadhg O'Shea's mount should be up to the task.
17.15:ON THE HOOF has already run a couple of decent races with plenty of moisture in the ground, whilst GABRIAL'S BOUNTY is an obvious danger having recorded several good efforts of late. DORA'S SISTER completes my trio against the field though my main bet might be trying to obtain 5/2 about a withdrawal in this dead eight 'bet to nothing' contest.
nap 14.20: DIAMONDS RETURN
nb 15.20: HOBBS DREAM