12 of Spurs’ last 17 home games against bottom-half teams have had at least three goals.
The home side has lost the last four matches between these sides but we’d be surprised to see that sequence continue here. Just when it looked like there was no way back for Steve McClaren his side delivered him a vital three points in an excellent display against Liverpool. But they’ve shown glimpses of promise at home this season before and that has rarely carried over to their away form.
Spurs, in contrast, have been very consistent this season. They’ve not lost in four months since an opening day trip to Old Trafford and have lost just two of their last 21 home games while winning 12 times.
Newcastle’s away record shows 11 defeats in their last 13 matches, with a nil-nil at Man Utd and a 1-0 win at Bournemouth where they were heavily outshot being the exceptions. Nine of those 11 defeats came after trailing at half-time, while nine were also lost by more than one goal and six by three or more. Supporting Spurs on the handicap certainly looks the way to go in terms of the match result and Newcastle have lost seven of their last eight trips to top-six sides. However, given how short the price is there looks to be greater value elsewhere.
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Spurs’ home games this season have largely been against tough opposition, with the 3-1 win over Villa being the only match that would have been a banker win heading into it, and fantasy players might think now is a good time to get the likes of Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen into their teams as they face a run of easier matches. If there are going to be goals in this game then there is a clear favourite to score them, and Harry Kane has netted in both his starts against Newcastle in all competitions. He’s in good form with nine goals in his last eight matches in all competitions and is worth a punt in the First Goalscorer market at 4.33.
12 of Spurs’ last 17 home games against bottom-half teams have had at least three goals, with six having four or more, and Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.60. However, given seven of Newcastle’s last 13 trips to top-half teams have had at least four goals taking the bigger line is definitely an option.
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