Sunderland are one of six Premier League bets in our Saturday round up of the 3pm kick-offs.
Crystal Palace v Spurs
Palace have not scored in five games since Yannick Bolasie was injured and the Congolese winger is still missing. However, there doesn’t look much value in the Spurs price as they’ve won just four of 11 trips to teams placed 4th-12th since the start of last season. Nine of Palace’s last 12 home games have been level at half-time as have 12 of Spurs’ last 20 matches and, furthermore, all five derbies between these teams since 2013/14 have been goalless at the break.
Half-Time Draw - 1pt @ 2.1
Leicester v Stoke
Are Leicester running out of steam? One win and only two goals scored in their last five games, and just one win in seven in all competitions, suggest they may be but had Riyad Mahrez dispatched his two penalties in that time things would look a lot different. Stoke certainly aren’t suffering as they’ve moved up to seventh and they’ve lost just three of their last 12 away matches. Furthermore, they’ve lost only two of their last seven trips to top-half teams and won here last season. Regardless of whether Leicester are weakening Stoke are plenty good enough to get at least a point here so we’ll take them on the double chance.
Stoke-Draw Double Chance - 1pt @ 1.84
Man Utd v Southampton
A win at Anfield is unlikely to signal a significant upturn in form for United but it will probably allow Louis van Gaal to continue with the same tactics that have seen four 0-0s in the last nine games at Old Trafford. Furthermore, there have been just two first-half goals in those matches. After a worrying slump, Southampton have won back-to-back matches without conceding so while the first meeting of these teams this season might have finished 3-2 a repeat seems very unlikely. 14 of Saints’ last 27 away matches have had fewer than two goals but with seven of their 10 trips this season being level at the interval we’ll take the half-time draw.
Half-Time Draw - 1pt @ 2.1
Sunderland v Bournemouth
A couple of recent wins have given Sunderland hope but with the other teams at the bottom all picking up points they could really do with all three points here. Defensively they remain a bit of a mess but they are scoring themselves and six of their last eight matches have seen at least four goals as a result. Bournemouth have lost six of their 11 away matches and it would have been seven had Riyad Mahrez slotted his penalty in their last road trip so while goals are definitely an option here – four of the Cherries five trips to bottom-half teams this season have had at least three goals – the home side look a decent bet at a generous price. The Black Cats have won their last three home games against bottom-half teams while bottom-six sides have won half their 98 home games against promoted teams since 2010/11.
Sunderland (Draw No Bet) - 1pt @ 2.2
Watford v Newcastle
After just five defeats in their opening 18 games Watford have lost four in a row and another defeat here could suddenly see them looking nervously over their shoulder. Newcastle, meanwhile, were briefly out of the bottom three last weekend and look to be improving each week. The Toon have lost seven of their last eight trips to bottom-half teams so it’s hard to make a strong case for supporting them but they’ve conceded more than once in just one of their last eight games while Watford have kept clean sheets in all five of their home matches against teams below the top eight so there’s a decent argument for an ‘unders’ bet.
Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 1.8
West Brom v Aston Villa
Villa put in a much improved second-half performance against Leicester to pick up a point but they face a very different test in the derby. West Brom’s physical approach was enough for a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture while Villa haven’t won here since September 2008. Villa have only picked up two points from their last 10 away games and have lost 17 of their last 22 on the road. Furthermore, that includes eight defeats in their last 10 trips to bottom-half teams with six by either 1-0 or 2-0 scores. West Brom have been conceding more than usual of late but they should be fully focused for this one and look good value to grab a narrow win.
West Brom Win and Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 3.95