Watford v Leicester - Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1

We’ve got eight previous matches in our database where a team in 10th-14th in the league hosted the table-toppers in March or April. No leader was bigger than 2.2 and the other seven were odds-on. Five of the leaders won on the road. Proof, if any were needed then, that Leicester continue to be underrated in the market as the Foxes are 2.50 to win here.

Incredibly, Leicester moved further clear at the top of the table in midweek despite only gaining a point at home to struggling West Brom after Arsenal, Spurs and Man City lost on Wednesday night. Leicester have lost just to just two teams this season – Arsenal (twice) and at Anfield. Their away form is fantastic. They’ve gone W8-D4-L2 on the road including W5-D2-L0 at teams currently in the bottom-half.

Watford’s form has curtailed since the turn of the year. They’ve won just two of their last 10 league games with six defeats. Only Villa, Swansea and Newcastle have scored fewer goals than Quique Flores’ team best typified by their slow starts. They’ve netted just once before half-time in their last nine.

It now looks pretty certain that Leicester will be playing Champions League football next year. An amazing statement in its own right still. Over the past five seasons, promoted teams have lost 57% of matches hosting top-four finishers. While most pundits have identified Vardy and Mahrez as the two gems in the Leicester side this season their defence certainly deserves merit.

They’ve come on leaps and bounds from the beginning of the term when they conceded in nine straight fixtures as they’ve kept clean sheets in nine of their last 19. They can be confident of making it 10 clean sheets here. Watford have failed to score in six of their 14 home matches so the away win to nil looks great here.

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Leicester Win to Nil - 1pt @ 4.25