Real Madrid have a two goal lead after the first leg but it might not all be plain sailing.
Whilst Roma managed to keep Real quiet during the first half of the first leg, Ronaldo broke the deadlock just before the hour mark before the exciting Jese landed a killer blow as he netted the second on 86 minutes. Since then, Real have lost at home to Atletico which might give Roma some hope, but they bounced back to form resoundingly as they beat Celta Vigo 7-1 on Saturday. Roma, meanwhile, have won all three of their Serie A games since the first leg, scoring 12 goals, four of which came at home to Fiorentina on Friday evening.
Though they won well at the weekend, Real remain short of clean sheets under Zidane as they’ve managed just two in the Frenchman’s 10 league games so far, both at home to bottom-half sides. Real’s Champions League home record since 2011/12 is a formidable W23-D3-L1, scoring 84 goals in these games (3.11 gpg). Their record in home last-16 second legs since 2007/08 is W3-D1-L2 and they’ve managed just one clean sheet in these games. We have Roma ranked as the 25th best team in Europe and Real’s home record against sides ranked between 20th and 30th since 2011/12 is W6-D0-L1, though once again they managed just one clean sheet.
Though Roma made it out of the groups again, they haven’t made it to the quarter-finals since 2006/07. Indeed, they’ve only won three of their last 22 games in Europe going back to the 2010/11 season. Their Champions League away record in that time is W1-D4-L5 with that sole win coming at Basel back in 2010 as they’ve conceded at least twice in seven of these games but also managed to find the net in seven. We have Real Madrid ranked as the 3rd best team in Europe and Roma’s Champions League away record when travelling to top-five sides since 2007/08 is W0-D0-L6, though only two of these defeats were by more than one goal.
Only four teams have won the first leg of a Last 16 Champions League tie 2-0 on the road and their record in the second leg is W1-D2-L1 with that defeat suffered by Real themselves last season after they won 2-0 at Schalke. Indeed, the record of sides that have won the first away leg of a Last 16 tie 1-0 or 2-0 since 2010/11 is just W2-D3-L2 in the return leg and if we go back even further, only three of 15 sides that took a 1-0 or 2-0 lead home in the second leg went on to win by more than one goal. We expect Roma to find the net in this one, with both teams to score available at 1.73, and we’re siding with them to take their strong league form into this one and be competitive.
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