Norwich v Man City - Saturday 12:45, Sky Sports 1

If Manchester City wish to retain an interest in the title race they simply must win this match. Furthermore, with a Manchester derby next weekend any slip here could see them come under huge pressure just to ensure they finish in the top four. Such is the nature of this topsy-turvy season though that if they pick up the expected three points they will be firmly back in title contention.

For Norwich, every match is just as important, as they are now in a position where almost certainly two of Norwich, Sunderland and Newcastle will be heading down to the Championship. On current form the Canaries look destined to fill one of those spots as they’ve picked up one point from their last nine matches while failing to score five times. While their goals have generally dried up they still rarely fail to net at home, having fired blanks just twice in 14 matches here this season.

City responded to their embarrassing defeat at Liverpool – their third in a row – with a thumping win over strugglers Aston Villa, and their last six league wins have all come against teams currently in the bottom eight. Interestingly enough they’ve not beaten one of the current top eight all season (W0-D3-L8) and that flat track bully mentality has given them a W15-D2-L0 record otherwise. They have won only two of their last 10 away games but seven of those were against the current top eight.

The concerns about Norwich’s recent drop off in attacking performance means we’ll leave the goals markets alone, although with 17 of Man City’s last 23 matches having at least three strikes we’d certainly consider the ‘overs’ here at 1.75, with Over 3.5 also a decent price at 3.0. However, 27 of the Citizens 39 wins since the start of last season have been by more than one goal and, with Norwich in such poor form, we’ll take the away side to record a comfortable win.

Sergio Aguero scored a double last weekend and he’ll have good memories of his past performances against Norwich as he scored one and set up three on the way to a 7-0 win in the 2013/14 season while he had a goal and an assist in a 3-0 FA Cup win two months ago. With goals in all of his five starts against the Canaries he looks an excellent price at 1.88 to add to his tally.

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Man City -1 Handicap - 1pt @ 2.7
Sergio Aguero to Score - 1pt @ 1.88