Burton v Wigan

The pressure has been taking its toll on Burton in recent weeks and a big game against leaders Wigan might be just what the doctor ordered to give their promotion push a timely boost. With expectations lowered after a five-match winless run and permission to play with the handbrake on against the 1/5 title favourites, the Brewers look a tasty price to prevail at 23/10.

Nigel Clough wasn’t around when Albion edged out the Latics 1-0 in the reverse fixture last November but it’s a result from which his players can take inspiration. And the numbers certainly support the case for a home win. Despite their recent troubles, my 24-match ratings make Burton 13/8 favourites once home advantage has been factored into the equation.
Burton to win - 1pt @ 23/10

Walsall v Swindon

Luke Williams talked about a fear factor enveloping his Swindon players during Saturday’s limp home defeat to Bury but this remains a team capable of hitting lofty heights when the conditions suit, and an away game at promotion-chasing Walsall could be the ideal stage for the Robins to finally confirm their League One survival.

Jon Whitney’s men needed a disputed late winner to edge out Southend at the weekend, the latest in a long line of unconvincing displays at the Banks’s Stadium. The Saddlers’ home record in 2016 reads W2 D2 L4 and the two wins both came courtesy of last-gasp efforts. All things considered, the 11/2 about Swindon is worth chancing.
Swindon to win - 1pt @ 11/2

Hartlepool v Accrington

It’s seven wins in 11 for Hartlepool, and four straight wins at home, after they pushed York further towards the relegation trapdoor at weekend. Now the upwardly-mobile Teessiders might just be in the mood to do some damage at the top of the table too. Given their recent form, the 10/3 about them beating Accrington is a nonsense.

Stanley have had a tremendous season up to this point, serving up untold profits for shot data followers in the process, but a promotion run-in is alien territory for John Coleman’s men. Saturday’s 2-2 draw with local rivals Morecambe might not be their only wobble on the run-in. Uncharacteristically, the Reds were over-run the final 30 minutes against the Shrimps.
Hartlepool to win - 1pt @ 10/3

Wycombe v Yeovil

Wycombe’s fading play-off hopes suffered another blow when they failed to beat Barnet on Saturday. The Choirboys have only won two of their last ten matches and Gareth Ainsworth accepts his team have to win three of their last four games to stay in the hunt, but a lack of creativity could prove costly here. Yeovil have kept eight clean sheets in the last 11.

The Glovers went down 2-1 at Bristol Rovers at the weekend but their defensive improvement under Darren Way, combined with Wycombe’s own unrivalled brand of uncertainty avoidance, means this game produces a total goals expectancy of just 1.59 on my ratings. By standard conversion, the Yeovil clean sheet should be no bigger than 7/4 and no goalscorer shows up at just 4/1.
Yeovil to keep a clean sheet - 1pt @ 18/5
No goalscorer - 1pt @ 17/2