The HT/FT market looks the best avenue to profit on Sevilla's Europa clash with Shakhtar.
Kevin Gameiro’s late equaliser via the penalty spot in L’viv could prove crucial for Sevilla as they search for an historic third Europa League title in a row. Unai Emery’s men followed that draw with yet another away defeat in the league on Sunday, this time at Espanyol, but they are already safely qualified for next season’s Europa League having reached the Copa del Rey final. Shakhtar, meanwhile, managed to record a 3-0 home win against league leaders Dynamo Kyiv with a weakened side in an eventful match that saw three players sent off following an 80th minute brawl – though their form in the second half of the season is such that they’ll probably still finish as runners-up in the league.
For all their struggles on the road in the league where they’re yet to win this season, Sevilla have been decent away from the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in their beloved Europa League as they’ve lost just once in four games. However, it is at home where they’ve been really impressive. Their record in this competition since the start of last season is W11-D0-L1 as they’ve kept seven clean sheets, with seven wins by more than one goal. Indeed, Sevilla have also beaten four of the top five at home in the league this term and have won 14 of their last 16 there in the league.
After losing five of their six group games in the Champions League, Shakhtar have looked far more comfortable back in the Europa League, winning four of six unbeaten games. On the road, however, their record in Europe since 2013/14 is W6-D4-L6 as they failed to score in half of these 16 matches. We have Sevilla ranked as the 11th best team in Europe and Shakhtar’s record when travelling to sides ranked between 6th and 20th since 2010/11 is W3-D3-L4 as they managed just three clean sheets in these matches, but managed to draw the first half in six of the last seven. Furthermore, Shakhtar have not won in any of their last three away games (two in the league and one in their domestic cup competition) which is indicative of a general decline in form following the winter sale of star player Alex Teixeira – who had 22 goals in 15 league appearances and also scored twice against Real Madrid – and the doping suspension to midfielder Fred.
The record of sides that picked up a score draw in the away first leg of a Europa League quarter or semi-final since 2007/08 is W5-D4-L0 in the return. Since Shakhtar have only trailed at the break in three of their 12 away games since the start of last season, and two of those instances were against Real Madrid and Bayern, while Sevilla have only led at the break in two of their last six at home in all competitions, and just three of their last 10 at home in Europe, backing it to be all-square at half-time but for Sevilla to go on to win looks to be the best bet in this one.
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