It's a big day of Spanish football and Mike Holden has picked out the best value bets.
Celta Vigo v Malaga
Over the past 24 matches, these two teams have collected an equal number of points (36) but Malaga have managed it with a 55 per cent shot ratio and five goals in credit, whereas Celta’s share of attempts is just 44 per cent, with a -7 goal difference. When you look at this meeting in those terms, the 6/1 available on the away win is nonsensical.
A dreadful start and fine margins are the only things keeping Javi Gracia’s men out of the European equation. The Boquerones managed only two wins in their first 15 outings, and their previous 13 matches against the current top seven have produced only 15 goals in total with five 1-0 defeats against the top five proving costly.
However, Malaga were comfortable 2-0 winners at La Rosaleda back in January and a repeat of that scoreline is much more likely than the 50/1 quote currently on offer with Bet Victor. If the Andalusians break the deadlock, Celta’s desperation for maximum points might only leave them exposed to a killer blow on the counter.
Las Palmas v Athletic Bilbao
Some of the build-up play from Quique Setien’s men at Los Carmenes was superb and it’s easy to get on board with them at such a tasty price against anyone outside the top three on that evidence. Athletic won their Europa League six-pointer with Celta Vigo last weekend but were indebted to a penalty and a red card shortly before the break when the Galicians were leading 1-0.
The market currently makes Athletic favourites by around 0.54 goals but my non-adjusted 16-match ratings come to the opposite conclusion, the shot data since January suggesting the Amarillos should be 0.41 goal jollies. Is Athletic’s extra incentive really worth an entire goal? Almost certainly not.