Real Madrid v Legia Warsaw - Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport Extra

After four draws in four games in all competitions, Real got back to winning ways with a 6-1 victory at Real Betis and are as short as 1.04 to make it seven points from their first three Champions League games against Legia Warsaw. The Poles have been well beaten in both their games as they lost 6-0 at home to Dortmund and were also beaten 2-0 at Sporting on matchday two.

Real have won 17 of their 20 Champions League home games since 2013/14 and if we only include group stage matches, they’ve won 18 of 19 unbeaten games since 2010/11, leading at the break in 15. Their dominance is reflected by the fact that they scored an average of 3.4 goals in these games, with nine victories by more than three goals.

According to our rankings, Warsaw are the 173rd best side in Europe and Real have played five Champions League home games against teams we have ranked outside the top 50 since 2010/11, winning 4-0 three times, 6-2 and 8-0 against Malmo last term. With Legia Warsaw on the lower end of that scale and since Real have scored more than four times in four home league games already under Zidane and put six past Betis, we’re going to back them to cover the -4 handicap in what will be a long night for the visitors.

Real Madrid -4 Handicap - 1pt @ 2.38