Reading v Brighton - Saturday 15:00

Concrete reasons for backing Reading to beat Brighton might be thin on the ground but the season is only three games old and it's stretch to say the Seagulls have gained around an extra 0.3 goals superiority on the Royals compared with last season. That's what the market appears to be suggesting with an 11/4 quote about the home win.

Chris Hughton's men have responded in excellent fashion to the cruel disappointment of last season's climax but three clean sheets, including successive 3-0 home wins over Nottingham Forest and Rotherham, don't really tell us whether they have improved or not - it just shows us they are focused and determined. However, this game might require something else.

Claim NowUp to £200 first deposit bonus with 10Bet

Reading are an unknown quantity. Jaap Stam is trying to apply an expansive, possession-based approach at the Madejski and up to this point it hasn't really clicked. But that's not to say it won’t, and often the quality of opposition is of little consequence when it finally does. If the Royals find their A-game, then a lack of precedence means Brighton might not be pre-programmed to cope.

So let's be bold here: bets on the Reading/Reading half-time/full-time outcome at 11/2 and Reading to clear the -1 handicap at 8/1 also deserve speculative money. Last season, the Seagulls lost five times and were behind at the break in all of them. On three of those occasions, the margin of defeat was two goals or more.

Click here for more information about Mike Holden’s shot-based ratings system

Reading to win - 1pt @ 11/4
Reading/Reading half-time/full-time - 1pt @ 11/2
Reading -1 on the handicap - 1pt @ 11/2