With a turbulent season for Lewis Hamilton we look at how likely the bookies think he is to win the world championship.
With a bumpy start to his racing season the odds for the British driver to earn himself another world title drifted to 8/5 in the wake of a winning run from Nico Rosberg. At Just a 38.5% chance of claiming the title on the day after the Russian grand prix the outlook was grim for the three time world champion. With some shrewd bettors using this lull in form to gain the best odds, they in particular will be happy with how Hamilton’s season has progressed
As Hamilton shook off initial technical problems and claimed his first victory of the season in Monaco the odds began to shorten but the bookies unanimously held off from slashing their odds due to an impressive 43 point gap between Lewis and Nico in the drivers’ championship
With a flawless performance in Monaco and again in the Canadian Grand Prix, Hamilton took the bookies and pundits by surprise by cutting the 43 point deficit down to only 9 points in just 2 races. The day after the Canadian grand prix Lewis Hamilton’s odds had shortened to 1/2 and the driver stood almost double the chance of winning the championship than he did 3 weeks earlier.
With a 4 race winning streak from Austria to Germany, Hamilton saw his percentage chance of winning the title climb from 66% to an incredible 83% chance of him beating his team mate once again.
Despite heavy penalties in Belgium and finishing only 3rd, in general odds were not seen to change after this race and most F1 fans will know why. Despite Spa hosting Rosberg’s first win since June the headlines were dominated by Hamilton’s record breaking drive from the back of the grid to a podium finish.
Currently we calculate Hamilton’s chance of victory on the world stage at 81.2% but with a challenging race ahead for Mercedes that saw them struggle last year could those numbers be about to change?