Fulham v Bristol City - Saturday 15:00

Tammy Abraham needed only 30 minutes to prove he was the difference between Fulham and Bristol City in midweek. The on-loan Chelsea man stepped off the bench to bag the winning goal in stoppage time as the Robins came from behind to beat the Cottagers in the EFL Cup. This time he will start, as both sides revert to their first-choice 11.

How much significance we should attach to Tuesday’s result is debatable. Slavisa Jokanovic made 11 changes from the 0-0 draw at Wigan, Lee Johnson made nine from the 1-1 draw with Derby. But it can only work to City’s advantage, highlighting the depth to their squad and knowing they can come to this venue and win. Now there’s a healthy kind of pressure on the first-teamers.

The respective shot data suggests a low-scoring encounter could be in store and the sudden familiarity between the two managers in trying to second-guess each other only lends to that. The market has the total goals line at roughly 2.55, my ratings say 2.35, and the same 0.2-goal differential is what seperates the two teams in the match betting.

So take the 5/2 available on the away win and back it up with a bet on the Bristol City 1-0 correct score at 11/1. The Robins aren’t used to low-scoring encounters but Fulham have finished under 1.5 goals in four out of eight matches, while another two of those didn’t produce a second goal until stoppage time.

Bristol City
Fulham v Bristol City
1pt
12/5
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