Don't expect a goals feast at Elland Road on Tuesday night.
Leeds v Wigan - Tuesday 19:45
The case for backing under 1.5 goals at Elland Road isn’t a particularly difficult one to make. The bet has landed in four of Leeds’ last five outings and four of Wigan’s last five. And in neither case is the string of binary code an accident. Both teams, out of necessity, play a system that puts the emphasis on control in open play and makes them difficult to beat.
For Wigan, possession is key. Gary Caldwell’s men are third from bottom of the table but top six for ball retention and pass success. The Latics have switched from a back three to a back four, but otherwise it’s a continuation of the philosphy Caldwell gradually infused into them last season, albeit against better defences.
For Leeds, it’s all about the basics. The Whites are middle of the road in almost every sense but, since a watershed 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest, Garry Monk has conditioned them to reduce matches to fine margins. The former Swansea boss is forever making the connection between practice matches and real-life, persistently talking about "putting our game out on the pitch".
Leeds only have licence to express themselves on certain conditions and those conditions are rarely met inside the opening 45 minutes. If Wigan achieve their aim of dominating the ball in the middle of the park, we could easily go deep into the contest without a single meaningful chance being created, making no goalscorer a standout proposition at 8/1.