The hosts look the value call in Friday's live Championship clash at Griffin Park.
Brentford v Fulham - Friday 19:45, Sky Sports 1
Slavisa Jovanovic dedicated last weekend’s awesome demolition of promotion-chasing Huddersfield to the Fulham fans, who hadn’t witnessed a home victory since the opening day - then immediately took a step back and delivered the caveat that his team remains a work in progress. It wasn’t a bluff, there’s potential but the Cottagers haven’t yet nailed their identity.
The second-best possession team in the division, with the best pass success rate, they flood the midfield and dominate the ball but the end-product is rather hit and miss. So don’t be swayed too heavily by the 5-0 thrashing of the Terriers. That’s just a glimpse of what can happen when it comes together at once. The default position should be to expect inconsistency.
Brentford are hardly a well-oiled machine but they appear to be further down the line in their development and post markedly better numbers on the whole, more than the market is prepared to accept judging by the prices being offered here. The disparity with my ratings is marginal in both cases but the value lies with the hosts and and low goals, so let’s cover both angles.
The under 1.5 goals bet (10/3) has copped in just two out of seven matches at Griffin Park but only the 4-1 win over Reading in late September wasn’t an unders game in essence, others have been ruined by set pieces and late goals. Meanwhile, you can get 7/2 about Brentford to win to nil. Five of their six victories this season have arrived this way.