Derby v Norwich - Saturday 15:00

It hasn’t taken long for Derby to rediscover their attacking mojo under Steve McClaren. The Rams had netted just seven goals in their first 14 matches, including just one in McClaren’s first three games at the helm, but they’ve since scored eight in three, shooting nine places up the table in the process. Take the 22/5 available on over 2.5 home team goals here.

It’s just one of a multitude of bets that appeal if you take the view that the market is slow to react to emerging trends on both sides. Derby have recorded 55 shots in those wins over Sheffield Wednesday, Wolves and Rotherham - 26 on target - whereas Norwich have tested the opposition goalkeeper just eight times in the same timeframe.

Alex Neil is under big pressure with rumours abound that his relationship with the dressing room is at breaking point. At the very least, you wonder, given his intensity, whether the players have grown tired of hearing his voice. Either way, the Canaries are posting data way below the standards you’d expect of automatic promotion contenders and on the back of four straight defeats are crying out to be opposed.

Let’s not beat about the bush with a simple bet on Derby to win at 5/4, enthusiasm centres around the Rams playing on the front foot and causing untold. It has the potential to be much more emphatic. Back the home side on the -1 handicap at 16/5 and throw in the Derby 4-0 and Derby 4-1 correct scores at 55/1 and 50/1 respectively.

Over 2.5 Derby goals - 1pt @ 22/5
Derby -1 on the handicap - 1pt @ 16/5
Derby 4-0 correct score - 0.5pt @ 55/1
Derby 4-1 correct score - 0.5pt @ 50/1