Sevilla can maintain their excellent home form when they host Valencia on Saturday night.
Sevilla v Valencia – Saturday 19:45, Sky Sports 4
Sevilla were undone at home against Juventus by Vazquez’s dismissal and two late goals by the visitors, but they would have watched with interest as Malaga held Barca to a draw last weekend, knowing that they can push for a top-two position in La Liga as a result of the Catalans’ slip-up. Valencia will be kicking themselves after being held by bottom-of-the-table Granada, especially given that it is never easy to take points off Sevilla at home.
Cesare Prandelli’s failure to mastermind a home victory over the only Primera Division side without a win this term will raise questions among the Valencia faithful; the squad this week is all but fully fit, but they need to start picking up wins fast if they are to avoid a humiliating relegation scrap. They will take comfort from the fact that Sevilla have won just three of their last 10 games against bottom-six teams, but that should be set against the fact that seven of those were on the road, where they’re notoriously bad. Barring their recent loss to Barcelona and a rogue 1-4 drubbing at the tail end of last season by Granada, Sevilla have been excellent at home: they’ve scored first in 15 and won 16 of their last 20 games here.
For all Valencia’s problems, and they are many, they’ve rarely been thrashed and 11 of their 13 away defeats have been since the start of last season have been by just one goal, so Sevilla to win by one looks like value at 3.8.