Sevilla have conceded in 14 of their last 15 away games but they should still win this one.
Granada v Sevilla – Saturday 12:00, Sky Sports 3
Granada are yet to record a win this season in the Primera Liga, and this weekend they host a Sevilla side whose only loss in their last seven games was to Barcelona. The visitors thumped a feeble Formentera outfit 5-1 away in the Copa Del Rey midweek, and will be brimming with confidence on their short trip east this weekend.
Granada’s last game saw them go down 1-3 to Celta Vigo away at the Balaidos Stadium, ending what little momentum they had generated in their two previous matches without a loss. It doesn’t help that Granada have gone W0-D4-L6 in their last 10 home games against top-six sides, but Sevilla’s away record is notoriously poor and in their last 10 trips to bottom-six sides have gone W1-D3-L6. That being said, the arrival of Jorge Sampaoli over the summer has made a difference: only one of those six losses came since the start of his tenure, and it makes a stark contrast to Lucas Alcaraz’s fortunes at Granada since he started in early October – he is still waiting for his first league win in charge.
Sevilla should take this one, but it’s worth noting that they’ve conceded in 14 of their last 15 away matches. As such, we reckon that Sevilla/BTTS is where the value lies.