Scunthorpe v Northampton - Saturday 15:00

Negativity has crept into Northampton's game over the past month or so. All-conquering champions in League Two last term, they’ve slipped into the role of satisfied passengers in League One. The football under Rob Page is passive rather than proactive but if they invite Scunthorpe on to them like they do most teams, the Cobblers might be exposed as also-rans at Glanford Park.

It might only be October but the Iron already carry the aura of champions-in-waiting. In their first 11 matches, they’ve come from behind to beat Bristol Rovers, rescued a point from two goals down at Fleetwood, put five past Gillingham and four past Southend and Walsall. With a 61 per cent shot ratio and a +15 goal difference, there’s no shortage of supporting evidence.

Since Graham Alexander took charge back in March, they’ve taken 46 points from 20 matches. If they maintain that run rate over the next 20, they’ll have secured a play-off place by the middle of February, and stay on course to finish the season with 106 points. In nine home games under Alexander, they’ve scored 24 goals - an average of 2.67 per game.

With that in mind, take some of the 14/5 available on over 2.5 home goals and back it up with a bet on over 3.5 home goals at 8/1. Now that Northampton’s long unbeaten run (31 matches) has ended and their glamour tie with Manchester United has passed, motivation might be thin on the ground if they go behind early.

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Over 2.5 Scunthorpe goals - 1pt @ 14/5
Over 3.5 Scunthorpe goals - 1pt @ 8/1