Oxford look good value in Saturday's clash with Millwall at the Kassam Stadium.
Oxford v Millwall - Saturday 13:00
Between mid-September and mid-January last season, Oxford suffered only two defeats, winning 17 out of 24 matches. Granted, they were in the division below but it was a sequence that culminated with a 2-0 success away at Millwall in the first leg of Johnstone’s Paint Trophy area final - their fourth victory over higher-division opposition.
That run is significant for two main reasons: 1) Oxford are a confidence team who thrive on the perception of having momentum; 2) it proved that they are capable of beating accomplished League One opposition. Sadly, the memory of it is playing on Michael Appleton’s mind a little too much.
Oxford have posted a handful of landmark victories this season and followed them up with poor results. Birmingham, Swindon, Bolton and Bradford have all been beaten - to nil, in each case - but the subsequent four league outings have generated only one point. Talk of 'getting on a run' appears to be adding pressure and preventing one.
After poor results at Coventry and Port Vale, that doesn’t matter here. Shot data says Oxford (53.8 per cent ratio) have the beating of Millwall (50.8 per cent). Taking home advantage into account, this shouldn’t be an each-of-two contest. So back the home win at 7/4. As for a correct score side wager, the Oxford 2-0 option at 14/1 is the position of maximum opportunity.