Bury v Millwall - Saturday 15:00

Making a case for Bury to beat Millwall isn’t easy. It’s a test of anyone’s faith in a value-punting strategy. But value is what the managerless Shakers are, in spite of nine straight defeats. Based on the shot data produced over the first 17 games as a whole, this ought to be an each-of-two contest, so get over yourself and take the 14/5 about the home win.

Tuesday’s narrow defeat at Sheffield United means Bury have plunged 16 places in less than two months but the spirited performance at Bramall Lane, on the back of successive five-goal hidings at Wimbledon, does at least offer some sign of life in the Gigg Lane dressing room. There was a fighting spirit that, if replicated, could bring greater rewards here.

Any game against Millwall demands that you match their intensity and aggression first and foremost. Few teams do, but those who manage it soon realise there’s not a great deal else to be overly concerned about, especially not when Neil Harris is deprived of either Steve Morison or Lee Gregory. Morris is definitely out of this game, while Gregory remains a doubt.

Fatigue is an obvious concern. Bury played over half the game a man down against the Blades, with Jacob Mellis red carded shortly before the break, then went down to nine when Greg Leigh was sent off moments before United netted their stoppage-time winner. Nonetheless, the hike in the price is monumental and your interest need not be any more than a solitary point.

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Bury to win - 1pt @ 14/5