Plymouth v Cambridge - Saturday 15:00

The early League Two shot data makes miserable reading for Shaun Derry. Cambridge have the worst ratio in the division by some distance at just 32 per cent, with an expected goals for figure of just 0.7 per game - the lowest in the entire Football League. If it continues, Derry could be out of a job by October.

The U's failed to register a single effort on target at Mansfield last weekend, just as they had in their previous away game at Doncaster, and though they might finally test an opposition goalkeeper on the road for the first time at Home Park, the 5/2 available on Plymouth to win to nil is more than satisfactory.

Claim Now£10 Free Bet - NO DEPOSIT REQUIRED!

After the false start that was successive defeats to fellow promotion hopefuls Luton and Carlisle, the Pilgrims have tightened up to take maximum points in four successive matches, the last three of which - against Mansfield, Blackpool and Cheltenham - were all accompanied by a clean sheet. It hasn't always been scintillating but such efficiency is no accident.

Derek Adams lost his way over the course of last season but he's had a bigger say on recruitment this summer and the squad now is almost entirely of his own making, so he has the tools to sustain his position as arguably the division's premier video analyst and game-by-game tactician. He should be too shrewd for Derry.

Click here for a free trial of Mike Holden’s shot-based ratings system

Plymouth to win to nil - 1pt @ 5/2