Crawley look like good value to win a tight game against Blackpool when the two go head to head at the Broadfield Stadium.
Blackpool have been the subject of a sustained gamble since putting Portsmouth to the sword at Bloomfield Road in midweek but the trip to Sussex might only serve to illustrate why they repeatedly come up short of the wider expectations generated by their shot data. Take the 27/10 available on Crawley to make their fewer chances count.
For Gary Bowyer, this season is just an extension of his frustrating tenure at Blackburn. He prioritised presence over excellence with his summer transfer business and you get what you pay for. Blackpool - the fourth most-dominant team in the division - create bundles, but no team is more panicky when the whites of the posts come into view.
On the contrary, against Portsmouth, they were creating different openings and fewer of them, so they were more composed. Bowyer ordered a high pressing game. The first goal came from a set piece, but the second and third goals (in a 3-1 win) were the direct result of forwards robbing the last defender as Pompey tried to play out from the back.
Crawley have scored the first goal in five of their six home matches, holding out for victory in three. It would have been four but Colchester denied them with an 88th-minute equaliser in midweek. The Red Devils had been ahead for 70 minutes and they generally close-out best with less time to hold on. The Draw/Crawley half time/full time bet at 8/1 is also worth a punt.