The Shrimps have scored at least two goals in their last three matches.
Morecambe v Carlisle - Saturday 15:00
Carlisle set a new club record of 11 matches unbeaten at the start of a season with victory over Colchester last weekend. Now they have been showered with plaudits for that achievement, they could be vulnerable in their very next outing, against a Morecambe from whom they poached two key players in the summer. Take the 9/2 available on the home win.
The biggest obstacle for Keith Curle’s men here is complacency, on so many levels. It’s not just about the record, nor is it just about Jamie Devitt and Shuan Miller, neither of whom can expect a full 90 minutes such is the strength in depth at Brunton Park. It’s as much about the seven equalisers the Cumbrians have netted this season, the seven points rescued from a losing position.
Eventually, they will get stung. They will fall behind and assume that everything is under control, then the opposition will open up a two-goal lead and the underlying pattern begins to fall apart. Morecambe aren’t two goals better than Carlisle but they are capable of scoring two goals and beating them on the day, just as they did to Portsmouth back in August.
Indeed, the Shrimps have scored at least two goals in their last three matches and seven matches in total this term. In five home matches, their goal difference is 8-11. With the right breaks at the right moments, a bet on Morecambe to clear the -1 handicap is nowhere near as silly as it first sounds and the Morecambe 3-1 correct score also merits an interest at a whopping 40/1.