Everything points to a home win in Friday night's live Ligue 1 clash.
SM Caen v Dijon – Friday 19:45
Caen have just two league wins in their last 12, and a tricky game against Dijon stands between them and a move out of the relegation zone. They suffered a 4-2 defeat at Lille on Tuesday, and will need to improve in front of goal in particular if they are to win this crucial game. The Dijon side they face made eight changes ahead of an impressive 1-1 home draw against Monaco midweek, but their away form has been questionable, so this match will be a significant test of their resolve.
While Dijon’s performance against Monaco was creditable, the real concern will be the fact that they have now accrued just two points from seven road games this season, failing to score in four of those fixtures. They have developed a habit of conceding late: four of the last five goals they conceded in the league were scored after the 75th minute. Caen has been a tricky ground to visit in recent times, and they have a robust home record this term, going W4-D1-L2. They will miss first-choice keeper Remy Vercoutre, who remains injured, but top-scorer Ivan Santini should return after missing midweek.
Dijon’s poor away form and Caen’s strength at home suggests that this should be a home win, but they’ve gone into the break level five times at home this season, and the same has been true of Dijon on the road on four occasions. With that in mind, we think Draw/Caen represents value at 5.25.