Arsenal v Swansea - Saturday 15:00

Arsenal left it late to snatch all three points last time out as Laurent Koscielny scored a controversial goal to deliver a cruel blow to a spirited Burnley side. The Gunners had had a lot of the ball, as expected, but didn’t play especially well and the overall feeling will have been one of relief. Though it may not have been the most convincing of displays, perhaps the most telling aspect was the performance of Shkodran Mustafi. Despite a relatively diminutive stature for a centre-half, he showed good strength in the air against Sam Vokes and greater defensive resolve could be the difference between a title challenge and the customary battle for third or fourth.

Compared to a Burnley side that have now conceded just six goals in 18 home matches, breaking down Swansea’s defence should be an easier task. Arsenal missed Olivier Giroud’s ability to hold up the ball, but in recent weeks Sanchez, Ozil, Walcott and Iwobi have all impressed and there is little to suggest Swansea will have the tools to cope at the Emirates. Arsenal have lost only once in their last 17 matches, winning each of their last five, and have scored first in 14 of their last 16 matches in which there was at least one goal. We expect the Gunners to start quickly and so are backing them to score their first goal between 16-30 minutes which looks to be the value bet at 3.8.

Too much is being demanded of Leroy Fer at the moment, with his four goals ensuring Swansea’s position isn’t as precarious as it could have been. They need Borja Baston, Fernando Llorente and in particular Gylfi Sigurdsson to step up or they look like being relegated. Indeed, with the bottom two sides playing each other, and a tough away trip to the Emirates facing them, Swansea could very well find themselves in the relegation zone after this round of fixtures.

Time OF First Arsenal Goal (16-30) - 1pt @ 3.8