Chelsea have drawn eight of their last 14 home games and another stalemate is a real possibility.
Chelsea v Man Utd - Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1
Following a turbulent spell where they drew with Swansea and were humbled by Liverpool and Arsenal, Antonio Conte has set his side out with a back three in their last two matches. Successive victories with accompanying clean sheets have justified the tactical tweak, with David Luiz seeming to enjoy the extra protection the third centre-half provides as he brings the ball out from the back. In addition, the defensive shield of N’Golo Kante and Nemanja Matic, plus the width provided by Marcos Alonso, has allowed Eden Hazard to roam dangerously with a large degree of freedom, whilst the impressive Willian should return to the starting 11 in place of Pedro.
Man Utd are struggling a little bit at the moment with key players underperforming, and so it was hardly a surprise to see Jose Mourinho set his team up to stifle Liverpool’s attack on Monday night. It is a tactic he has often employed against those he considers genuine title rivals and with Liverpool's form having made them favourites it was noticeable how many fouls Man Utd committed to break up the flow of the game. It is unlikely Mourinho will be more adventurous at Stamford Bridge and recent form suggests a tight encounter with few goals.
There have been fewer than three goals in seven of the last eight matches between these two sides across all competitions and fewer than two goals in five of these games. Three of their last four meetings have been drawn, though Chelsea have the upper hand with five wins and five draws in the last 10 clashes (W4-D6 in 90 minutes). With Chelsea having drawn eight of their last 14 home games, we think the value lies in backing draw/under 2.5 goals at a price of 4.5 in what could be another Jose special.