Thirteen of Milan's 19 away games last season produced less than three goals.
Sampdoria v AC Milan - Friday 19:45, BT Sport 2
Sampdoria only finished 15th last term after they were up in 7th in 2014/15 but they’ve started this season well under new manager Marco Giampaolo, winning their first two before Roma came from behind to beat them 3-2 at the Stadio Olimpico thanks to a late penalty from the legendary Francesco Totti. For Milan, it’s been a familiar tale of woe as they’ve lost their last two, continuing to look a shadow of their former selves as they looked destined for mid-table mediocrity once again.
Sampdoria won more than they lost at home last term and now have a W9-D4-L7 record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris since the start of that campaign. However, six of their eight home wins last term were against bottom-seven sides and they’ve won only three of 11 when hosting teams between 6th and 10th in the last couple of seasons, due largely to the fact they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these games which have nonetheless been cagey affairs as eight saw fewer than three goals.
Milan were very much an ‘unders’ side last term, particularly on the road as 13 of their 19 games saw fewer than three strikes as they could only muster 21 goals. Most of those came from Carlos Bacca, who has fired blanks in his last two after netting a hat-trick in Milan’s opener.
As a result we’re going to back Under 2.5 Goalsat evens here. Since Five of Milan’s away wins last season were against bottom-seven sides, we’re also going to side with Sampdoria/Draw No Bet since they’ve looked more like their old top-half self this term, particularly at home.