Macedonia v Italy - Sunday 19:45, Sky Sports 5

Macedonia’s defeat against Israel on Thursday night was their sixth in their last seven matches but their visitors here have had no such problems as they managed to pick up a draw against a very impressive Spanish side to leave them with four points after their first two qualifying games in what looks a seamless transition from Antonio Conte to Giampiero Ventura.

While Macedonia have lost 11 of their last 14 road games, they’ve lost just nine of their last 20 at home. However, we have Italy ranked 12th in the world and Macedonia have failed to score in their last five home games against teams inside the top 50, but didn’t conceded more than twice in any of these games.

Indeed, Italy have scored more than twice in only three of their last 38 road games, though two of those instances came in their last four away matches. When travelling to sides outside the world’s top 50 (we have Macedonia 114th), the Italians have won 11 of 14 unbeaten games since 2008 and because seven of these wins were either 1-0 or 2-0, we’re backing Italy to Win and Under 2.5 Goals.

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Italy Win and Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 2.7