Netherlands v France – Monday 19:45, ITV 4

Both the Netherlands and France started this qualification campaign with a draw in their first matches, followed by identical 4-1 results in their home victories on Friday night. The Netherlands are still on a rebuilding mission after their disastrous Euro Qualifying campaign. Recent friendlies have shown that they’re improving but most of their successes have come on the road as their victory over Belarus put an end to a run of five consecutive home defeats.

Given this is one of the strongest French squads in years, Les Bleus are worthy favourites especially with Arjen Robben still unavailable for the hosts. However, they’re still tainted by inconsistency; despite reaching the Euro final they were unconvincing at times against the likes of Romania and Albania and since they could only manage a draw with Belarus in their opening Group A road game, we’re going to avoid the match outcome markets.

Instead, our preference is for over 2.5 goals as both of these teams conceded against relatively weak opposition on Friday, while the Dutch have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight at home, resulting in five of the last six seeing at least three goals and four having at least four strikes. If you’re looking for a correct score, 2-3 in favour of France at 40/1 could be worth a punt as it’s been the scoreline in three of the Netherlands’ last five home defeats, including against France six months ago.

Over 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 2.15