Sweden v Bulgaria - Monday 19:45, Sky Sports 2

Sweden were very disappointing at the Euros where they managed just one goal and a single point, but since then things have improved somewhat as they managed to keep the Netherlands to a draw in their opening qualifier and won 1-0 in Luxembourg on Friday night. Bulgaria, meanwhile, beat Luxembourg in their opener, but expectedly struggled in France in their last game, despite taking the lead.

Sweden’s home record since 2014 is W7-D4-L2 and when hosting sides that they’re ranked higher than but are still in the world’s top 100 (we have Sweden 30th and Bulgaria 73rd), they’re W5-D4-L1 since 2013, suggesting they look on the short side at 1.5 to win here.

Indeed, prior to the defeat against the French, Bulgaria had won four of their last six games, while they’ve also won seven of their last 15 road games. They’ve avoided defeat in half of their last 12 trips to sides ranked above them since 2012 and as a result we’re siding with them to pick up a least a point here against the now Ibrahimovic-less Sweden by backing Bulgaria or Draw Double Chance.

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Bulgaria or Draw Double Chance - 1pt @ 2.7