The TPC Louisiana is once again the host for the Zurich Classic where the birdies will flow and in order to contend you are going to need to make a lot of them over the space of four days. Traditionally this is one of the easier courses on tour but it is not as straightforward as it may seem. The sloping greens can make the short game a bit tricky and it will be important for the players not to get too complacent here. Scrambling and putting remain the most important aspect of the game here at Louisiana.

This tournament isn't the easiest one to predict and has a habit of throwing up maiden victories for those in search. Some of the winners are quite talented though and often it is a quality campaigner who wins here. Rose, Watson, Horschel and Dufner have all won here over the last five years. Jason Day finished 4th here last year and arrives as a strong tournament favourite. I was amazed how short he traded a few weeks back at the Heritage, an event which over 72 holes would surely get the better of him. He has a better chance here and his price reflects that. I can't however invest at those odds despite his record in the last six months. Even if he plays very well there will undoubtedly be umpteen others shooting low scores also as that is the nature of this tournament. The 5/1 on offer is thus rendered little value.

Justin Rose is mighty short also. He won here at 11/1 last year and turns up this time a general 8/1 poke. He is nowhere near the same form of last year and he is easily passed up. Billy Horschel comes here with every chance and it seems a win isn't far away but his price is also very thing so we'll be looking elsewhere for our bets this week.

The world and its dog seems to be piling into Daniel Berger this week and I find it hard not to myself. I often question golfers who get talked up an awful lot without hard evidence of how they play under pressure. Berger has proven so far though that he is a classy operator. Two top 15 finishes and a 2nd at three of the four Fedex Playoff events towards the end of last year showed just how impressive this lad is. What really took me to stand up and notice was his recent top10 finish at Augusta. This was a week where the short game was paramount and those missing few putts from inside 10 feet were all towards the top of the leaderboard. Previous to that he finished at Houston. Four rounds in the 60s here at the Zurich last year and a total of 18 under is enough to show us that Daniel is up to the task of competing well this week and the 25/1 on offer is fair.
D Berger - 1.5pt e/w @ 25/1Lost -3pt
Chris Kirk missed the cut in his first outing here a few years back and followed that with a top 25. I am hoping he can show a bit more form on this course this year as it should really suit his game. His wedge and short game is exactly what you need around here and although I think his price is a little on the thin side he has all the qualities to contend here. He finished 13th last week and most aspects of his game are working correctly. He can be mighty hot with the putter and if he is I fully expect him to contend here over the weekend. Given how short the favs here I definitely feel this is a more worthy selection.
C.Kirk - 1pt e/w @ 40/1Placed 3pt
One final lad I'm prepared to take the punt on this week is Troy Merritt. A top 15 at Riviera was backed up with a 3rd placed finish at Arnold Palmer and it shows this lads versatility. He won the Quicken Loans last year with a score of 18 under so is capable of getting to the big numbers in order to win an event. I definitely believe his game doesn't have many weaknesses and it is always worth considering him around the tracks that require a bit of touch and feel. He is unlikely to prove to be in the calibre on Daniel Berger in the years to come but a 3rd placed finish here back in 2010 shows he has the tools to compete at this track. His price is definitely a spot of value.
T.Merritt - 0.75pt e/w @ 150/1Lost -1.5pt