Kempton 14.35

It’s not hard to make a case for either of the top pair in the market for the 3 mile handicap chase at Kempton. The Last Samuri should come on a fair bit for his very respectable reappearance and the form has been franked. This could end up being a trip on the sharp side but there is pace on so his stamina should be brought into play. He’s very much a future National horse. Ned Stark perhaps didn’t get home in the Hennessy in the ground but back in trip and grade plus eased a generous 3lb by the handicapper, he’s my idea of the most likely winner. Last year this went to Ballinvarrig, just 1lb higher this afternoon, and cheekpieces go on after a slightly below par reappearance. He was a short head in front of the 1lb better off Shangani 12 months ago and it’s that horse who gets the vote this afternoon. I honestly find Venetia Williams horses hard to get right but this horse shaped fine from the front on reappearance before a no show run last time, ultimately very disappointing before unseating (put him up that day too). He doesn’t have the most consistent profile but that’s factored into his price and his best run in in recent times did come in this 12 months ago when rallying a little too late. This year’s renewal looks likely to place more emphasis on stamina too, which will play to his strengths.
SHANGANI - 1pt @ 16/1