12.40 Southwell

I will be hiding behind the sofa at 12.40 as today is the third day running I have come up with a favourite in the first race of the day. However nowadays my bets are based on the number of positive or negative indicators for each horse based on my set parameters - I have no influence on which race they appear in.

Fujin has an awful lot going for him in the opener at Southwell. Back to the scene of 2½ length victory over Fortinbrass (who has a 5lb claimer taking over from Winston, an incidence that returns a huge loss), if he gets the lead (which seems likely) I am convinced he will win. Shaun Harris, his trainer, returns a profit with horses running three times or more in the last month (as does John Balding but from a tiny sample) and Oasis Dream is a positive sire at Southwell.
Fujin - 4pt @ 2.0Won 4pt

1.35 Wincanton

The presence of hotpot Present Man in the opener at Wincanton gives the race a good each-way look about it and Zephyros Bleu is the obvious one. This horse has been novicey in his jumping so far but, judged by the exemplorary standard of jumping shown by Whittington’s runners in general,I would be very doubtful that this department has not been addressed in the 35 days since the last run.

Trainer and Jockey are still profitable individually but they are striking up an extremely lucrative partnership (9 wins from 21 so far). The sire Westerner is also still a plus on heavy ground. It is hard to find a negative indicator for Zephyros Bleu, it is simply possible that he may get beat by a better horse in Present Man. However it is years since it has been profitable to back Paul Nicholls at his local track, especially when Twiston-Davies is riding, and temptation to back them should be resisted. The difficulty here as regards betting is that I want to back him each-way with 16 runners, which is the current number left in (19 declared!). Hopefully the law of sod will not strike!
Zephyros Bleu - 2pt e/w @ 10.0Placed 1.6pt

3.10 Gowran Park

Rule the World has not yet won a chase but gets the chance to break his duck in a 100k race this afternoon. To be fair this is his level and he has performed with great credit in similar value races but circumstances look particularly favourable today. Rule the World is 5/13 in soft or heavy ground (2/4 on heavy). Mouse Morris has played a blinder booking Jack Kennedy, the best 5lb claimer in Ireland by far. I was singularly unimpressed by Mala Beach’s jumping at Ascot and even though the longer trip will suit him her,e the size of the field could put him under pressure.
Rule The World - 3pt e/w @ 11.0