Meydan 18.30

The UAE 1000 and 2000 Guineas have a different feel to them as far as class goes this afternoon. We will very likely see a brilliant winner of the fillies race in Polar River, who looks extra special and isn’t worth taking on at short odds. The boys don’t necessarily lack class given the presence of 112 rated Steady Pace but I’m not sure, given the time of the trial, that he and Rouleau show their best on the dirt. Equally, I’m not all that keen to take them on and fancy Rouleau could be that little bit smarter at the trip with less to do early from a better draw than last time and with a 2lb pull. We shall see.

As far as a bet goes it comes in the last. Belgian Bill was a course winner out here last year over a furlong shorter and off 4lb lower before seemingly finding 10 a bit of a stretch. He was left with a little too much to do last time over a mile but this extra furlong will suit and he’s better drawn to not get too far back here. He’ll be ridden with restraint but unlikely dropped out and that could be key. There is pace, which he needs (I don’t think Musaddas will have his one way up top) and that could set things up for Bill who can win off this mark if things drop right. I’m also tempted by El Estruendoso. He has the profile of a few De Kock horses that have gone well out here in previous years before struggling 12 months ago. Now back to a handy mark, he has moved yards but is a well treated horse for all it takes a leap of faith to back him

Belgian Bill - 1pt @ 9/1