Romania v Albania - Sunday 20:00, BBC FOUR

Romania proved they were a hard nut to crack against France in the tournament’s opening game and they also managed a point against Switzerland. If they were to win here and France were to beat Switzerland then there is a good chance they could go through in second, though it would go down to goal difference. Albania, meanwhile, defied being reduced to 10 men after just 36 minutes against Switzerland to remain competitive as they were only beaten 1-0 and they were also impressive against France, who took until the 90th minute to break the deadlock.

Though Romania have only won one of their last six games, they’ve only tasted defeat in two of their last 22. Their record when playing sides they’re ranked higher than but are in the world’s top-100 is W7-D9-L3 since 2013, with six draws in the last seven of these matches and 10 of the last 12 of these games since 2014 saw fewer than three goals, including four goalless draws. However, after being excellent defensively during qualification where they only conceded two goals in 10 games, they’ve now failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and that’s become a problem as they’re not the most prolific in front of goal, netting more than once in just three of their last 14 games.

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Albania’s defeat against France was their third in a row, but they’ve been in some tough fixtures as the other two games were against Ukraine and Switzerland. Their record against sides that are ranked between 22 and 42 places higher than them is W3-D2-L2 since 2010 in what have tended to be tight affairs, with six of the seven games seeing fewer than three goals and four with fewer than two. The Albanians restricted France to just two shots on target in their last game and unfortunately for them the hosts managed to find the net with both of those strikes.

Given how these two sides have played so far in the tournament, it’s somewhat surprising to see Under 2.5 Goals as big as 1.80 in this one, particularly since their recent fixtures against relevant opposition types have also been very low scoring. What’s more, there have been 16 group stage matches between sides ranked outside the world’s top-25 at Euros and World Cups since 2008 and 10 of these saw fewer than three goals and as a result ‘unders’ looks the best bet here. In terms of the match outcome market, we’d certainly be taking on Romania at around 2.15 since they’ve only won one of their last six, with Albania +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.77 worth consideration, but as we expect a low-scoring affair, the draw looks the best value at 3.75.

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Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 1.8