Italy v England - Sunday 14:00, ITV1

England have run riot in their last two games against Italy, winning 47-17 at Twickenham last year and 52-11 in Rome two years ago.

But the lead-up scenario of those two matches were different to Sunday's Olympic Stadium clash so rather than a bet on a 16-point match handicap, take the visitors to give up eight points in the second half. There was a double-figure difference in both those victories.

Twelve months ago the Red Rose chariot was rolling into round two buoyed by a shock win in Wales. The year before it was a final-round encounter with England going for as many points as possible to deny Ireland the title and the Azzurri were staring down the barrel of a five-defeat wooden spoon.

On this occasion, England run out in the Eternal City after only a steady success in Scotland following their early World Cup exit and their hosts must have been lifted by their surprise efforts in Paris last Saturday even if disappointed at not nabbing a first Six Nations win in Paris. Italy skipper Sergio Parisse was sensational last week bar his last-gasp drop goal attempt, his fellow forwards shunted the French pack back plenty of times and new fly-half Carlo Canna showed great poise to claim a scoring full-house (drop goal, penalty, try and conversion). Experienced full-back Luke McLean for David Odiete is Jacques Brunel's only starting line-up change.

Forecast morning rain and afternoon showers should also mean that Eddie Jones will again ask England's forwards and the tactical kicking of George Ford and Owen Farrell to lay the foundations for victory rather than demand all-out attack before dominance is achieved.

Lock George Kruis scored England's first-half try at Murrayfield and with these tactics another member of their front-five, Mako Vunipola, looks worth an anytime tryscorer bet at 9-2. Mako, a feature of Saracens' excellent rolling mauls at club level, will want to make the most of this start at loosehead instead of Joe Marler and while his only Test try so far came in Rome two years ago, he was a visible menace in the loose off the bench against Fiji, Wales and Australia at the World Cup.

Mako's deft handling also set up wing Jack Nowell for England's second try last Saturday and he is worth a bet at 6-4 to score a ninth Test try.

All eight have come in his last seven outings, starting in Rome two years ago. And while it takes in a hat-trick against Uruguay at the World Cup, it is easy to forget he scored three tries in last year's tournament too.

England's six-two forwards bias on the bench means that while pack-based tactics will probably be continued after the break, Nowell should get the full 80 minutes to score. And he doesn't just stick to his wing waiting for the ball, he frequently asks for the ball at pace in midfield off an angled inside line. Nowell is comfortable in the centres for club Exeter and will likely be switched there if George Ford, Owen Farrell or Jonathan Joseph are injured.

England -8 on second-half handicap - 2pt @ 10/11
Jack Nowell anytime tryscorer - 1pt @ 6/4
Mako Vunipola anytime tryscorer - 1pt @ 9/2