The first live show indicated that producers were up to their usual tricks in promoting some acts and hindering others. Plan A Louisa Johnson got starry staging and "a star is born" comments. Meanwhile, the suggestion in Bupsi's pre-song video footage was that she had let the fancy lifestyle go to her head.

Last weekend also indicated the importance of song choice: Louisa got 'God Only Knows', one of the most iconic pop tunes; Bupsi got a relatively unknown Marvin Gaye number. The leaking of this information - from Thursday night's Xtra Factor onwards - is crucial to punters looking at the next elimination market.

Kiera Weathers is 11/4 favourite to go next week. Having survived the singoff, we know she polled below everyone else still in the competition. More often than not a sympathy bounce occurs: survival from the singoff creates sympathy, and the act's vote bounces the following week.

However, sometimes producers do their best to hinder this with their usual tactics of poor song choice, staging etc. They successfully managed to dampen Steph Nala's sympathy bounce last year, and the week 1 singoff survivor departed in week 2. My guess is that Kiera brings more to the competition than Steph, and she'll be treated better next week, allowing the sympathy bounce to take effect.

Second favourite for next elimination at 10/3, Max Stone was not treated particularly well in last Saturday's live show: he was given a terrible slot of second in the running order; he was forced to sing a reggae version of 'Someone Like You', a bizarre decision that the judges picked up on; and his lack of performance skills was highlighted throughout. Yet he managed to escape the bottom three. There is a possibility that the fine vocalist could become the "annoy-the-show" candidate: an act get the public get behind in defiance of the criticism he receives on the programme.

At this stage, Reggie n Bollie's odds for next elimination appeal more. They were given every help last week with a later slot in the running order, a good song choice, excellent staging and highly positive judges' comments. Fun though their performance was, they still seemed a little out of their depth, and that should be even more obvious next week. At this early stage, with song choices unknown, the 7/2 about them to go next is the suggestion.

Mason Noise follows them in the elimination market at 6/1. Producers will have hoped that the first live show has completed Mason's rehabilitation from the "bad boy" tag, and he has commercial possibilities which means further help. Monica Michael is next at 10/1. She was given excellent treatment for her Wildcard return. Producers often turn on a Wildcard contestant quickly afterwards, but Monica might have too much momentum to fall from grace so quickly.

As far as the win market goes, Louisa Johnson predictably tightened her grip at the top of the market, whilst Che Chesterman has emerged as a clear second favourite. Some damaging tabloid headlines for Anton Stephans have seen him drift in the betting. It remains to be seen what effect this will have on his phone vote.

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Reggie n Bollie to be eliminated next - 1pt @ 7/2