Publication of song choices the day before the live show has helped pinpoint the next elimination for the first two weeks. Bupsi got an unknown Marvin Gaye number, whilst Kiera was lumbered with the strange choice of 'Return of the Mack'. Punters should be watching Thursday night's episode of Xtra Factor on ITV2 at 7pm, when the first leaks are made, and following the official X Factor Twitter account for the first reveal of the full list.

Without that information, calling the fifth elimination feels tricky this week. Short-priced favourite at a general 11/8 is Mason Noise, surprisingly saved in Sunday's singoff. He offers commerical possibilities for the show, but sending him out second in Saturday's running order was hardly an indication he's a priority. He's going to have to hope his vote receives the sympathy bounce after a singoff survival that Kiera didn't manage last weekend.

Next in the market is Monica Michael at 5/2. She was given even worse treatment in the second live show - dressed unflatteringly and asked to do the impossible: be sexier than Beyoncé. A fiery backdrop and fire jets on stage are usually used on acts being taken down, and that was only confirmed by the harsh judges' comments. It was a sudden change of heart by producers after her triumphant Wildcard return the week before, and she's clearly seen as disposable.

There's then a gap in the elimination market to Max Stone, Anton Stephans and Reggie n Bollie, all priced at around 7/1. Producers threw everything but the kitchen sink at the last-named on Saturday: the penultimate slot in the running order; the biggest stage production we've seen all year; and endorsement from One Direction's Liam. My guess is that producers will try to keep the fun duo around for another week or two.

Anton Stephans was treated very badly by an unsuitable song medley and staging. But there's no denying that he's one of the big characters of the series, and this treatment in itself is supposed to be a talking point, as it had been for Christopher Maloney in 2012 and Andrea Faustini in 2014. With the usually reliable Daily Star indicating he easily won the first week phone vote, he should be staying around for a while longer yet.

Max was also given overly harsh judges comments to his performance on Saturday. The iconic song choices and warm staging were a positive, however. He has belied predictions of an early exit so far, thanks partly to strong vocals. On the other hand, Fourth Impact have failed to impress in the live shows despite coming into them as second favourites to win. They are 12/1 to be eliminated next and can't be discounted. Meanwhile, the others look safe for next week - Che Chesterman and Lauren Murray are now the biggest rivals to favourite Louisa Johnson in the outright market.

Song choices will tell us more later in the week, but at this stage, the two at the head of the next elimination betting do indeed look most vulnerable. At the prices, Monica Michael is the pick to go at 5/2.

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Monica Michael to be eliminated this week - 1pt @ 5/2