Who will be the first celebrity to get the boot on Sunday night?
Common sense would dictate looking at those at the bottom of the table (namely Ed Balls) when trying to determine who will be the first to go. However, public votes rarely have any common sense and with Balls just 4/5 to go we'll be looking elsewhere.
Moving away from common sense and applying what we will call 'Strictly logic'. Normally, anyone who can't actually dance becomes a fan's favourite which delays the inevitable until everyone (the press, social media etc) starts complaining that although it was funny at the start, that person is now taking the place of celebrities who can actually dance. So based on this, Ed Balls (4/5 fav to be eliminated first) should be fine for a good few weeks yet.
Instead, we need to look in the no-man's land of mid-table. The couples who haven't earned enough points from to judges to not worry about the public vote, but who have scored enough points for the public not to worry about voting for them. With this in mind our first selection will be Anastacia Newkirk.
The American singer actually received pretty decent scores from the judges (28) despite nearly falling over at one point. She wasn't bad, but she wasn't great either and with this in mind I can't see her scoring a huge score when she tackles the salsa on Saturday which should in turn leave her bang in the middle of the pile. Without a massive fanbase to rely on, I can't see the British public voting for her in huge numbers which could leave her vulnerable and at 25/1 I think it's definitely worth a small investment.
The second selection comes down to a choice between three.
Melvin Odoom struggled in his first dance and managed just one more point than Ed Balls. He'll be dancing the tango on Saturday and will need to show a huge amount of improvement if he's to avoid finishing towards the bottom of the leaderboard again. However, I think he has a strong enough fan base to make it through the first public vote and at 2/1 is a bit too short for me.
At a much bigger price is Greg Rutherford who will also be dancing the tango on Saturday. The tango is a notoriously difficult dance for male celebrities and although Greg surprised many with his ability last week, I'm still not convinced he's a complete natural which could lead to a low score this weekend. With this in mind the 40/1 on offer is tempting, but you get the feeling his competitive nature would see him through if he was to face a dance off.
Which leaves us with our second selection for the boot, Lesley Joseph. The actress scored 23 points for her waltz in week one, a dance that suited her much more than the cha cha she will be attempting on Saturday which has the potential to be a low scorer. If this was the case, it would leave her languishing towards the bottom of the table and although she may receive some support from the public, if that wasn't to prove enough, I can't see her cha cha being strong enough to survive a dance off.