TV betting expert Daniel Gould has a bet in this week's elimination market.
Last week it was a case of working out which of the three lame duck acts who dominated the elimination market were the most disposable. It's a similar story this week, between three-time singoff survivor Saara Aalto, three-time lifeline winner Ryan Lawrie, and Sam Lavery, who fell into the bottom three for the first time last week. They are co-favourites at 2/1.
It'll be another Saturday waiting to hear if the Sunday vote to save one of the bottom three remains. It has to be dropped at some point, otherwise at the semi-final stage it will tell us who is topping the vote just before the final. Now is as good a time as any, after last week's problems with the app during the brief voting window. Producers may also start to worry that if Honey G falls into the bottom three, gone is the headline-grabbing speculation that she may win the whole thing.
If the Sunday lifeline is dropped, that isn't necessarily good news for Ryan Lawrie or Sam Lavery, who may have been helped by regional votes to save them at this stage. Finnish Saara Aalto doesn't have the advantage of a similarly motivated base. Instead, the latter's strong vocals have helped defeat her opponents in three singoff appearances. After being saved by the judges last week, Simon Cowell admitted she had more to offer the competition, and that narrative may help her through this week.
Ryan Lawrie has been struggling ever since his first bottom three appearance in week two. Last week, he managed to escape the danger zone for the first time since then with a big production of Twist and Shout. He does at least serve a few purposes for the show, as a cute boy appealing to female viewers, and as fellow contestant Emily Middlemas's boyfriend. At some point soon, that won't be enough.
However, it looks to me like Sam Lavery is the most disposable act of all. A set of early draws and empty stages indicate that producers don't have long-term plans for her future. She's a likeable youngster, but her performances and post-song interviews have been beset with nerves, unlike either of her main elimination rivals. Rumours are that she will sing the iconic I Will Survive, most likely slowing it down in a rocky arrangement. I'm not sure how much that will appeal to viewers, and cements her as this week's elimination tip.
The main story in the win market is Honey G's continued shortening. The novelty act has gone from an initial 100/1 down to a best-priced 8/1 after a fun production of Jump Jump last weekend. She is now third favourite behind Matt Terry and Emily Middlemas, who still dominate the outright book at 10/11 and 5/2. 5 After Midnight have continued to drift - to 14/1 - despite a lot of positivity about their most recent performance.
It looks like producers would love to have Honey G in the final, as the show's main talking point. Pundits are talking up 2016 as the year of the outsider, following Leicester's Premiership title, Brexit and President Trump. The show would love that to continue right up to the deciding weekend of December 10-11. You can expect another massive production for Honey G this weekend, and maybe even hints dropped that she can go all the way.