Horses to Follow: Australia Day Long Weekend
A resuming Group 1 winner for Weir, an unlucky 3YO with an eye towards the Derby, an impressive mid-week maiden winner and a country mare destined for highway success round out our horses to follow this week.
Kolding – Canterbury Race 1: 1st ($2.20F): This son of Ocean Park has almost come back a different Colt. Had the perfect stayers walk and temperament in the yard, head down and striding out beautifully. Only question was if 1200m was too short. The punters didn’t think so as he overtook Emergent (SP $2.60) as favourite late in betting.
Travelling nicely for Bowman midfield, the Colt took plenty of winding up as he got through 3-4 off the fence to eventually wind Front Sight in by 0.2L. There was a significant headwind on course, but the inside gave plenty of advantage throughout the day, adding more merit to this win. The quality of his opposition may be questionable but he’ll improve significantly over more ground down a longer straight.
Possible Targets: 3YO Colts and Geldings race over 1400m.
Land Of Plenty – Moonee Valley Race 7: 3rd ($6): Come back in superb order after his 12-week spell. In a race with 4 of 10 horses trained by D.K. Weir the betting usually tells the story. Initially, his roughest of the field Fifty Stars was hammered late in the piece jumping at $7, Brave Smash did nothing but drift, was restrained back and ran last whilst Whispering Brook (1st) and Land Of Plenty held solid throughout.
Lane positioned the entire nicely two horses off the fence 7 lengths off the pace. He was nudged along most of the trip to keep tabs on the solid speed. Hooking 5 wide on the turn he ran on strongly to finish 3rd. The fast run race should provide him with a perfect platform to launch off second-up where he historically does good work.
Possible Targets: G1 C.F. Orr Stakes over 1400m.
Alternative Facts – Randwick Race 2: 4th ($15): The lightly raced mare presented with some improvement to come after a 6 week freshen. Initially opening at $26, she was slashed into $15 come jump time. The money was easy to fathom considering she was 2 from 2 over the distance as a 4YO.
After jumping midfield Adkins was content to let the mare find her feet, drifting right back to third last prior to the turn. She took plenty of time to wind up, only hitting her top gear late to finish 4th. The winner I Am A Cool Kid certainly look above Highway grade and this mare was on its hindquarters 50m past the post. Stepping up to 1200m looks suitable now.
Possible Targets: 1200m Highway (C2).
Dealmaker – Randwick Race 8: 2nd ($2.90F): There was good money for this Colt resuming for Waller. Eventually over taking Sondelon (SP: $3.50) as favourite after looking close to his top in the parade. The money was on point despite the 3YO not getting the cash.
Holding the rails just off midfield, Bowman elected to come inside Prometheus coming around the turn. This decision would ultimately lead to his demise as he struggled to get into the colt taking a needle eye opening between Brazen and Wayanka. The armchair jockeys were straight into Bowman, probably unfairly if he wasn’t a Derby Colt first-up…
Possible Targets: ATC Derby 2400m.
Land Of Plenty: Already installed as a $4 favourite for the first Group 1 of the calendar year. We don’t see this price being much shorter on race day. Leaving this for now.
Dealmaker: Sits at $15 for the ATC Australian Derby. Enough meat in that price to have something very small on now given he’ll likely go round very short at his next start and subsequently tumble in should he win.