We got off to a stable 3-2 start in week 3. Lets pick it up and keep our cash flow moving in the right direction!
We’ve got 3 premium picks this week with some leans noted afterwards.
Carolina Panthers -3
Lets not forget, this team is still the reigning NFC champions. Yeah they got manhandled by the Vikings defence at home, but I’m prepared to give the Panthers a pass. With all the riots, protests and unrest in Charlotte, North Carolina, I too would be a bit distracted. Having this game in Atlanta I feel would actually benefit the Panthers. Lets not underestimate the Vikings defence though, they’re probably the 2nd or 3rd best unit in the league.
Atlanta’s defence is rated 2nd last in the NFL. This team can definitely score points, but I prefer to back teams that are reliable on the defensive end. Atlanta doesn’t give me that confidence. This Panthers squad is extremely different from the swiss cheese defence the Saints put up against the Falcons last week.
With a shift in momentum from last week, I look for these two teams to battle out a close one, but the Panthers will grab win in the end.
New York Jets +2.5
This is possibly one of my favourite picks of the month. The Seahawks come into this game after absolutely pummeling a hapless San Francisco last week 37-18. Same theory as my Bills pick last week, Seattle will come into this one a bit too overconfident.
The Jets on the other hand got embarrassed 24-3 at Kansas City. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 6 interceptions. That is unheard of, especially considering he had only given up one interception through the first 2 games. Fitzpatrick will come home, screw his head on and get back to the gritty play gang green of New York are known for.
The Jets’ identity has always been their defence and in particular their defensive line. The offensive line for Seattle is far and away in contention to be recognized as the worst in the league. But that’s ok, their quarterback is extremely athletic and he can run away when the defence comes rushing. Oh what’s that? He injured his ankle and MCL last week? Really now.
You’re giving me a Jets team with a quality head coach motivated from a poor showing last week, 3-1 against the line as a home underdog, versing a rubbish offensive line with a semi injured quarterback coming off a large win against a division rival. When favoured after a division win, Seattle has gone 14-36 against the line.
Give me the Jets every day of the week. Might even double down on this one myself.
San Francisco +2
It’s not exactly the most common sense play. In fact it’s quite a contrarian play. I like San Francisco. I still respect Chip Kelly even if he is at the helm of a pretty bad squad.
That being said, I look for San Francisco to be motivated off their last outing drubbing at the hands of the Seahawks. With Dallas having lost their best receiver in Dez Bryant, and having 3 of their key offensive lineman listed as questionable I see some potential for the 49’ers to capitalize on this home field advantage.
Blaine Gabbert although he’s an average quarterback in my opinion has rated as 8th in total Quarterback rating league wide. Dallas gives up an average of 411 yards per game. Dallas, when favoured after a win have gone 2-14 against the line.
Give Chip Kelly a sniff and he’ll make you pay. I think Chip will be sniffing an upset on Monday.
There are some mouthwatering matchups that will be good to watch but maybe not the best to bet on. I have some strong leans on Cleveland and Los Angeles with the points as well as high scoring games in Pittsburgh and Houston.
Well that wraps up the best bets for Nik’s picks in NFL week 4. We look to build on our 3-2 record heading towards the quarter mark of the season.