In what looks to be one of the strongest plays of the week we try and ride the Colts to a win over the Chiefs.
Now for many of you who read these weekly picks you’ll know that I’m not a fan of the Colts as a team or an organization. However, I always try and be objective by stating that they’re shithouse on the road and better than shithouse at home.
Indianapolis is at home in this one and they’re getting 3 points!! The last 10 games the Colts have been home favourites they’re covered all 10… they’ve also won 9 of those outright.
Chiefs have had a good run, but this will be a spot where they may fall a bit flat and either eek out a narrow win or just get carved up by Luck and his Colts.
New Orleans +3
Full disclosure, I have a soft spot for the Saints and I try to limit betting on them just incase the feels get in the way of making sound financial decisions. However, I think this play should be a good one.
The Saints have stiffened up their defence in recent weeks conceding on average close to 100 yards less per game. Drew Brees and the offence had an underwhelming outing last week at Kansas City and I look for them to bounce back at home in the confines of their dome.
Seattle on the other hand played an absolute belter of a defensive matchup against the divisional rivals the Cardinals. The game went to overtime and ended in a draw. Seattle’s defence was on the field for such a long time last week I question whether they have the time to rest up in time for this one.
New Orleans can move the ball and put up points at home. Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown a TD in his last 2 games and the lack of quality on their offensive line is causing issues for Seattle’s running game.
Take the Saints at home with the points.
Atlanta Falcons -3
Aaron Rodgers has been an absolute shell of his former self. Anyone with eyes can see that. Many are blaming the Receiving corps or the lack off running game as both Lacy and Starks are injured for the Packers.
The way I look at things, that the running backs will still be injured, the receivers have played well below average and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been able to fix these issues. Personally, that win over the hapless bears, with their cluster injuries on defence combined with their 3rd string quarterback has proven just about nothing in terms of whether the Pack is back on track.
Atlanta and their high-powered offence has the ability to carve up Green Bay’s defence. Julio Jones should have a feast on Green Bay’s smaller corners. Atlanta is averaging 32.7 pts per game making them the best in the NFL. Green Bay has only scored 30+ points once and that was at home.
Philadelphia Eagles / Dallas Cowboys: Under 43
The problem with totals betting is that too many punters think they should be looking at whether the teams in question have good offences and defenses. That’s true, to an extent. A factor I like to look at closely when making total plays is, whether the teams in questions play at a fast tempo, essentially allowing them to get more plays in the game, and how often they throw the ball as well as how long the passing yards attempted per play are.
This is a great game for the under. These two teams rank last and second last in tempo, meaning they get off less snaps per game and try to suck as much time off the clock as possible. Dallas’ heavy reliance on the run will help us as well as Philadelphia’s brand of calculated composed football.
Both teams in recent week have played opponents who like to play up-tempo and as such haven’t truly reflected their preferred style of play.
Look for long multiple play drives from both teams and an arm-wrestle that should go down to the wire. Bonus pick on Dallas-4.