After getting a couple of unfavourable final drives last week it goes to show how difficult the NFL is to predict. A turnover or a lack of effort on a single play could decide a point spread. With that said, lets take a dive in to some games which offer value from a betting perspective.
Kansas City Chiefs +3
We’ve taken the chiefs a couple of times with success this season and gone against them with less success. Lets ride that trend this week as they face the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are a decent team, a team I think is underrated by the markets. However, with that aside, Kansas City is one of the most consistent well coached franchises in the league this year.
Kansas City has won 17 of their last 20 road games outright and covered the spread in 21 of their last 31 road games. Coach Reid has a way of bringing the best out of his players on the road and I look for this to continue.
A hapless Rams squad managed to keep it close with the Panthers last week staying within 3 points by the final siren. The Chiefs are a class above and I to, although they’re away, believe they can keep this one within a field goal.
New England Patriots 1-13
New England is the class of the NFL right now. They’re well coached, well quarterbacked and well rounded in every aspect. The bye last week came at an inopportune time as the team was rolling since Brady had returned.
Seattle’s defence is probably the best in the NFL. With that said, they’ve played 244 snaps and 123 minutes in the last 3 games compared to a league average of 193 snaps and 90 minutes. These guys should be running on empty. Against a smart, quick and strategic Patriots offence, they will be run ragged.
I have respect for what Seattle can do and that’s why I believe the craftiness of Wilson and the absolute heart the defence plays with can keep this within 2 touchdowns. I don’t see them pulling an outright win at New England though.
Green Bay / Tennessee Titans Over 49
These teams have left a fair bit to be desired in recent weeks. Green Bay were embarrassed last week at home against the Colts and will be primed for a big bounce back game. Unfortunately they don’t have a running game at the moment which means more throws for Rodgers. That should translate to either yards or stoping the clock with incompletes.
On the other side of the ledger we have the Titans. Who are more than capable of putting up points. Mariotta is one of the top rated QB’s when it comes to red zone offence. Add in the fact he’s a dual threat who can always move the chains with a run and a running game to power through the Packer flimsy defence, and we should see a lot of ball movement towards the red zones.
Mariotta is also prone to a turnover or two, so hopefully this factors in and pads the bet further. Either way, we should see points from these squads.
Teaser multi – New England & Cincinatti+7 & Arizona-7
Teasers are a great way to get some insurance on some plays that seem as if one side should be the goods but the linesmakers have put you in a jam. I’m expecting Arizona to win by at least a Touchdown against the 49’ers, I expect Cincinatti to keep it close against the Giants (Don’t like that they’re on the road), and as aforementioned, New England will be guaranteed to win this week.