Super Bowl 51 - Niks Picks

It's what we've all been waiting for! It's time for the biggest single day event on the sporting calendar!

Oddschecker
 | 
Fri, 3 Feb, 12:00 AM

My favourite time of the year! The Super Bowl is without question the world's biggest one-day event, trumping (Donald included) all others. Everyone gets involved, from the season long punters to the fair-weather fans and everyone in between.

If you're not completely amped up for this game than I suggest you watch the below vid to psych yourself up before reading any further!

Now that's out of the way, let's get straight into the analysis!

Why can the Patriots win?

Belichick and Brady. I feel like a broken record but you’re looking at G1 and G2. That’s GOAT 1 and GOAT 2. Aint no better quarterback or coach in history that’s been better than these two battlers (Rodgers fans check them rings).

The Patriots have a truckload more experience, especially in the postseason. Belichick is the master of taking away a team’s key weapon. Whether that is a running back or a star wide receiver just as Antonio Brown was made MIA by the Pats defence in the previous round. Julio Jones is a major weapon for the Falcons, but Belichick can scheme him out if that’s the route he wants to go.

Let me just hit you with some numbers. The Patriots rank 1st in points allowed whereas the Falcons rank 23rd. Pats rank 8th in yards allowed, Falcons rank 22nd. Pats rank 10th in 3rd down conversions allowed and the Falcons rank 24th. Finally, the Pats rank 7th in red zone defence and the Falcons rank an abysmal 32nd (dead last).

Why can the Falcons win?

I can’t believe I’m saying this but the Falcons’ offence is underrated. They’re averaging 6.7 yards per play (pp.). How good is that? Well it’s a top 10 offence since the 1970’s. With the Falcons giving up 5.6 yards pp. their differential is at +1.1. The next best team is at +0.6. They’re head and shoulders above the competition in this area.

That Patriots’ defence is overrated. They’re ranked 1st in scoring defence, but that’s come about because they played the easiest schedule in the NFL. Literally, the 32nd out of 32 schedules. When Ryan ‘turnover’ Tannehill is arguably the second hardest quarterback you’ve faced, you know you’ve had an easy season. The top 10 quarterback they faced, Russell Wilson, torched them in their stadium. The Falcons on the other hand faced Rodgers (ranked 3rd), Wilson (ranked 5th), Carr (ranked 6th), Brees (ranked 7th), and the total record of those games… 6-1. Not too shabby at all Atlanta, not too shabby at all. The only loss of that bunch was at Seattle. In that game the majority of the world with two eyes agreed the Falcons missed out on a legitimate pass interference call which would’ve won them the game.

Dan Quinn is coaching Atlanta in this one and he has a history of game planning for the Patriots. Quinn was the Defensive coordinator for the Seahawks and had to figure out Brady and his offence many times in the past.

Teams with the better regular season record are 1-14 against the line in he Super Bowl. Brady hasn’t been the same quarterback in the Super Bowls. His average quarterback rating in his three most recent Super Bowl campaigns was 90.2 but his performances in those Super Bowls averaged 72.1

The Total

Well every Harry, Barry and Larry would’ve seen how good the Falcons and Patriots’ offences have been throughout the season. What does that mean? Overs baby! All day every day! Not so fast muchacho.

This total is set at an astronomically high level. The average NFL total is 46. These teams are great, but they’re also smart. New England knows it doesn’t want to get into a shootout with the Falcons historically good offence. Similarly, the Falcons know that they need to drain as much clock as possible, keeping Brady off the field to increase their chances of winning.

Trends:

  • Two team off back to back overs, have seen their games go under at 59%.
  • 2 teams in the playoffs, who both played games that went over, and the total is set at 49 or higher has seen the under cash at 75%.
  • Call me contrarian but we’re going against Harry, Barry and Larry in this one.

    1st Quarter Winner

    The Falcons have been fire in the first quarter. The dirty birds have scored touchdowns on their last 8 opening drives. New England on the other hand have been slow starters in Super Bowls. Look for Atlanta to set the tone early and show they’re not intimidated by the big stage.

    Legarrette Blount: Total Rushing Yards

    Look for Legarrette Blount to be almost over-utilised by the Patriot’s offence. New England won’t get flustered and will want to keep Atlanta’s offence off the field for as long as possible. Blount will get his fair share of carries in this one and against an underwhelming Falcons defence will probably have some success.

    Final Verdict

    The underdog has won seven of the last eight Super Bowls and covered the line in 12 of the last 15. The Falcons are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog.

    This game has the makings of a great one. Once it’s all said and done, I have a feeling we’ll be talking about how amazing the offence is for the Atlanta Falcons as they take down the Patriots in a Nail biter.

    Atlanta 30 – 26 New England

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