NFL – Week 11 Best Bets
Each week we pick out the five best bets from the NFL slate. Current record: 19-17-1
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Brett Hundley is a very, very mediocre quarterback Last week was a perfect storm for the Packers getting an inflated Bears outfit who were overconfident which allowed Hundley to manage his way through the game.
In week 11 Baltimore is coming off a bye so coach Harbaugh has had a couple of weeks to plan for this average offense. Harbaugh with extended time 2+ weeks is 15-5 ATS.
I Simply can’t trust the Packers with Hundley under centre; Baltimore’s defence should be the difference maker in this one forcing the young quarterback into a few mistakes.
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens-2
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
This might be Eli’s last game in Big Blue‘s colours for the season. With the season done and dusted Coach McAdoo could be tempted to test the backups if Eli doesn’t come good in this contest.
The Giants have themselves to blame for the hole they find themselves in. The defence will be up to put a lid on KC’s offense. The Chiefs have failed to crack 100 yards rushing in a number of games and have also lost 3 of their last 4.
The Giants are getting 10 points here! The last time this was the case they destroyed the Broncos. I just think it’s too many points for a KC side that has under delivered in recent weeks.
Best Bet: New York Giants +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Miami are done. The Fins inflated record will have to normalise at some point and I think it starts in this game.
Miami’s record against the spread at home is 16-46. That is absolutely pathetic. Mike Evans is coming back for the Bucs and Fitzpatrick has been in serviceable form, which is all you can really ask for.
Cutler and Miami have truly given up on the season whilst the Bucs are playing with a little more gusto. The wrong team is favoured here so back the Bucs to drive into Miami and take the ‘W’
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Chicago is going to be super motivated after being 5 point favourites last week and came up short.
Trubisky is a game manager and shouldn’t be a layer. However, the Bears are a quality ‘take the points’ type of team not the ‘lay the points’ type.
The stats say that the Lions are a below average offense and defence ranking in the bottom third in both categories. Stafford has kept them afloat thus far.
The Bears as a home dog are 3-0 against the spread against better teams. Book the Bears.
Best Bet: Chicago +3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys come in without key players in this one. Tyron Smith, Ezekiel Elliot, Sean Lee are some names that the cowboys will be without.
Sean Lee is a significant loss on defence and the left tackle and running back situation is now dire for the Cowboys.
On the other side of the ledger the Eagles come into this well rested with a strong defence and great ball control.
The Cowboys tend to play worse at home and the Eagles in these contests have a great record ATS playing at the Cowboys.
Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -3
By Nik Hatzi