NFL – Divisional Round Best Bets

All the latest info for the marquee games in this week’s round of the NFL Playoffs

Thu, 11 Jan, 12:59 PM

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta is rolling after knocking off the high-flying Rams in LA. Nick Foles for Philli hasn’t commanded much respect, especially after being shutout in his last regular season game by the Cowboys defence.


The Eagles still have the fourth ranked defence in the NFL and will need every bit of it to slow down the Falcons. From a betting perspective I would take the points with the Eagles and their home-field advantage. The best bet however is the under in this game as the two would be likely to avoid mistakes and unsettle the other.


Key Stats

The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games.


Tip: Atlanta / Philadelphia Under 41

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Tennessee is facing a perennial juggernaut in this next round. The Mariota led offense had their way with the Chiefs in the second half after Kansas City’s collapse. The same will probably not be able to be said in this one.


Belichick and Brady will not take their foot off the gas in the playoffs like they do in the regular season, especially with extra time to prepare. The Titan’s defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau was the Pittsburgh defensive coordinator all those years that they were owned by the Patriots. We should see much of the same here.


When in doubt, back Belichick and Brady. The play on the field and the stats noted say it’s the way to go.


Key Stats

In the playoffs, underdogs of 3 or more points off an upset win are 39 – 77 ATS.

New England in the last 6 years is 5-1 ATS in the Divisional round.


Tip: New England -13

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Anyone attending the game should be sure to rug up. It is going to be Freeeeeeezing! Temperatures are expected to get below -6 degrees Celsius.


Blake Bortles has been found out for a while as not being good at moving the ball and the Steelers D at home will be able to focus on stopping the run, limiting yards from Jacksonville’s offense. Bortles struggled to throw in 20-degree temperatures in Jacksonville. Not a good sign.


The Steelers after turning it over 5 times will be playing conservatively and not let the Jaguars get in front from their own mistakes. With that said I’m expecting a cagey, low scoring affair and the professional bettors agree, with 70% of the money coming in on the under here.


Key Stats

The total has gone UNDER in the Jaguars last 3 games against the Steelers.

Favourites are 50-15 H2H and 35-27-3 ATS in sub freezing conditions.


Tip: Jacksonville / Pittsburgh Under 41

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are fully rested, healthy and their receivers have been humming. These offenses are comparably close and it should be the best game to watch over the weekend.


The Vikings D is elite and the Saints running game recently hasn’t been as successful as it was earlier in the season. The Saints would be obviously tired in this spot and may be facing a Minnesota defence who has had extra time to prepare.


The Saints last three losses of the year were all on the road. This is not a good sign with them travelling to the dome of Minnesota where it will be rocking.


Key Stats

Minnesota’s defence has held every opponent this year to under 40% on 3rd down conversions

Minnesota the last 3 seasons as a home favourite 15-4 ATS.


Tip: Minnesota Vikings -3.5

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